How to Flip the Script on Risk-Free Bets

Bet $500 and if you lose, we'll give you another $500 to bet with. That's the promise of a risk-free bet. And it couldn't be any easier. But are the sports books that generous? I have been generous up until now. But I can be cruel. Or are they counting on most people to make mistakes when they bet them? Today, I'm going to show you three steps to do risk-free the right way. Hi, I'm Jack from Unabated, where we provide software, tools, and education to help you find and place sharper bets. For the past 20 plus years, I've been taking advantage of casino and sportsbook promotions.

They help me build my bankroll, and it's not beneath me to pick up a free $20 of EV wherever I see it. However, the sports books don't give out bonus money because they want to help you build your bankroll. They do it to acquire new customers and buy your loyalty. They use risk-free bets as a carrot because they know most people will fall into some of the common traps when using them. The problem is baked into how risk-free bets are structured. If you see an ad for a risk-free promotion, most sports books set them up the same way. If you bet up to a certain amount, say $1,000 on your first bet and you lose, you get something back.

Just not the straight no strings attached cash that you're hoping for. Instead, your money is usually returned in the form of a free bet. Bet $1,000 and lose, and you might be refunded five free bets worth $200 each. And they'll often have a time limit attached, like they have to be redeemed within a week or you lose them. The most important difference is in how your stake is handled. Make a $100 bet at even money and you collect $200. Your winnings and your initial stake.

But with these free bets, you don't get your stake back. Cash a winner on a $100 free bet and all you collect are your winnings. And that ends up being the difference that trips people up. Let's take a look as to why. Trying to get max value and betting as much as you're allowed on a risk-free bet is smart. But often newer bettors end up making a big $1,000 bet that they're not ready to make. And when it loses, panic sets in. They make the bet thinking they had a free roll.

But now that the bet lost, they want to claw back that $1,000. And so they think, "Well, I'll put it on a sure thing, like a -400 favorite." When bettors take short prices like -400 or -650 on these risk-free bets, the books have already won. If you use $200 free bets on a minus400 favorite, you're betting $200 to win $50. Even if you hit all five of your free bets, you'll only recoup $250 of the original $1,000 bet that you lost. And that's the best case scenario. A minus 400 bet has an implied probability of 80%. That means we can only expect it to hit about four out of every five times.

This means on average you've turned $1,000 worth of free bets into $200 of actual dollars. The books net 800 that might have taken them months to extract from you as a firsttime customer. But you could have turned that $1,000 worth of free bets on average into about $800 actual dollars. So, how do you flip the script? If the books are going to offer you up to a certain amount if your first bet loses, then step one is to take full advantage of that offer. I know this isn't one-sizefits-all advice. Not everyone can deposit enough at first to max out these bonuses, but if your bankroll can support a maximum risk-free bet attempt, you should do it.

And if you can't, try to make that initial bet for as much as makes sense for your bankroll. The way to maximize your expected value on risk-free bets starts with having as much risk-free money to play with as possible. I mentioned that betting heavy favorites using your free bets isn't the best way to use them. But we haven't touched on your initial bet before we even have to deal with the free bets. And that takes us to step two. Make your first bet on a decently priced long shot.

Now, it doesn't have to be something completely hopeless like will Taylor Swift win. Just something in the normal course of a regular game, like the Commanders to beat the Lions at plus 400, like we saw in the divisional round of the 2024 playoffs. If you can find a spot where you have an edge, or at the very least where the house has the lowest hold, you can set yourself up with a shot to get the most out of the process. You can use an odd screen like the one we have at Unabated to see which bets have the lowest hold at any given time. These bets that have a low hold are more forgiving.

It lowers the break even price you need to hit to stay profitable. Essentially, it means you can be wrong more often and still keep your money in play longer. Now, assuming you made a plus 400 bet, best case scenario is you win. If you bet the Commanders, you now have $4,000 in winnings to go with your initial $1,000 bet. It's basically the same idea Aaron Rogers uses every time he sees a flag at the snap and takes a huge shot downfield. It's a freebie.

But if you miss, and you'll miss often, those plus 400 plays only hit on average one out of every five times. You have your free bets to fall back on. Here's where some people trip up. If your initial bet misses and you have free bets to use, you need to keep betting reasonable long shots. To figure out the math on free bets, you need to know how often you expect to win and what each win is worth. Like I said earlier, if you use all five free bets on minus400 plays, you'll get back on average $200. Minus400 is the same as an 80% probability. A $200 bet at minus400 pays $50 in winnings.

So, your expected value of each $200 free bet is 80% of $50. So, $40 each time 5 for $200 of total EV. If you go the other way and make five $200 risk-free bets at plus400 instead, you'll lose on average four of five of them. But on the fifth, you'll get back $800. Remember, your initial stake doesn't come back to you on these bets. You're only getting back your winnings. And that's your total expected value, four times as much as what we thought was playing it safe.

Now, let's put it all together, including your initial bet. If you were to make your initial $1,000 bet on a minus400 favorite, you profit $250 if it wins. 80% of the time, we have $250 of profit and we're done. 20% of the time, it goes to the free bets. Multiply those out to get the weighted average and it's 200 minus 160 or $40 of total EV playing the heavy favorites. Now, let's see what happens when you take plus 400 on every bet. 20% of the time you profit $4,000. The other 80% it goes to free bets. You recoup $800 of your initial $1,000 in your free bet EV.

Multiplying those out, 800US 160 equals plus $640 of EV using the underdog method. Which brings me to a point that you should keep in mind for anything you bet. Expected value matters much more than win rate. We're trying to win the most money, not the most bets. And we do that in the long run by getting the most EV out of the bets we make. Don't get caught up in always having to win your bets.