What are the 3 commandments of live betting? Remember your fire safety and stop, drop and roll.
Back to VideosEveryone knows what to do if your clothes catch fire:
Stop. Drop. Roll.
That advice has been drilled into our heads since grade school.
It turns out it's also good advice for live betting.
Today, we're going to take basic fire prevention and turn it into a basic strategy for in-game betting. Whether you're a beginner or looking for more advanced approaches, the same three words provide a surprisingly solid framework.
Why does this matter? Because the deeper you get into live betting, the more likely you are to find yourself competing against bettors who are effectively betting from the future.
Can you still find an edge when your competition has a huge jump on you?
Let's start with the basics.
Whenever you're tempted to make an in-game wager—whether you're watching on television or following online—I want you to remember:
Stop. Drop. Roll.
Wait for a stoppage in play. Preferably a commercial break.
This single tip will save you a ridiculous amount of money over the long run because the biggest factor working against live bettors is time delay.
If you're watching on TV, you're probably 15 to 30 seconds behind real time. If you're streaming or following online, it could be over a minute.
Whoever you're betting against—whether that's a sportsbook or a counterparty on a prediction market—probably has a faster feed than you do. They might even be sitting at the event itself.
It's like they're from the future and have traveled back in time 30 seconds to where you are.
That's not a fight you're likely to win.
Instead, wait for the great equalizer: the TV timeout.
God bless American sports, which were largely built for television. Television means commercial breaks, and lots of them. The networks make money every break—and you can, too.
Whether it's halftime, an inning break, or a TV timeout, wait for the natural stoppage before you bet.
Once the game stops, drop whatever else you're doing.
I've said it before: the single sharpest thing you can do as a bettor is shop for the best price.
During live betting, prices move quickly. A few seconds spent comparing books can uncover real value.
If you're trying to do all this from your phone while half-watching the game and nursing a beer on the couch, you're probably not trying very hard to win.
There's nothing wrong with betting for fun.
But if you're trying to beat the market, those few seconds matter.
As in bankroll.
Bet sizing matters in every form of sports betting, but live betting introduces another wrinkle.
One advantage of betting in-game is that you can continue adjusting your position as new information becomes available.
If you fire too much of your bankroll early, you lose that flexibility. You may find yourself unable—or unwilling—to add to a good position or hedge out of a bad one.
As a general rule, I recommend betting roughly one-third to one-fifth of your normal unit size on each live wager.
That keeps you flexible while limiting the damage if your read is wrong.
