Ten Ways To Win At Sports Betting With Unabated – Part II
August 31, 2022
Your growth and sustainability as a sports bettor depends on your ability to stay one step ahead of the sportsbooks. The best way to do this is to have a versatile and varied attack as you seek to gain an edge in sports betting. In Part One we began this list of ten ways to win at sports betting. Now we list the remaining five paths to profitability that Unabated can help you discover.
6. In-Game Betting Tools
One of our first objectives in starting Unabated was to give bettors access to information about market dynamics that previously had only been available to few. Our Alternate Lines and Compare Lines tools did that for pregame odds. However, the industry is shifting to a higher percentage of wagers being placed in-game.
Giving bettors access to alternate line pricing data on live in-game wagering is a revolutionary step forward in bettor knowledge. The value of each half point in a spread or total increases as the time remaining in a game decreases. Rufus Peabody and our team of qualified data scientists have built complex tools to do this for College Basketball, NBA, MLB, and soon we will unveil NFL and College Football.
The Top Down Method of In-game Betting
Sportsbooks have been led to believe that in order to increase profits, they need to increase the frequency in which people wager. In-game betting is their means to that end. They get more bets as the market in the game progresses. The difficult part of this equation for the sportsbook operator is that they need to constantly be making new lines throughout the game and this presents even more surface area to defend. On top of that, in-game linemaking on complex US sports is much tougher than other sports they’ve dealt in the past.
Seeing the gap in the market for better in-game linemaking, DeckPrism, founded by Matt Davidow and Ed Miller, came on to the scene a few years ago with a better pricing model for in-game. They are the premier market maker for in-game betting. That’s why we have them prominently featured on our odds screen.
You can use the DeckPrism real-time feed as your source of truth to practice a Top Down Method of finding value, much like we described in Part One of this article. Our live in-game screen only displays lines from our real-time sportsbooks, so it’s a decreased selection. This is because in-game lines move fast. Even a brief delay would be problematic for an in-game bettor.
Ways To Win At Sports Betting Using Unabated’s In-Game Betting Tool
Our tool is designed to be used during TV timeouts when the lines stabilize for 2-3 minutes. In baseball, that’s between half innings. We have a live real-time score feed in our odds screen so you’ll know when those windows of opportunity are.
You choose your source of truth from our odds screen. Then you enter the game state information. We’ll project out vig-free pricing for moneyline, spreads, and totals based on all the information provided. From there, it’s up to you to find the value that exists in the market. Perhaps it’ll be at a book that’s on the screen in real-time. However, more likely it is in the Alternate Lines area of your own possible sportsbooks.
Here are two examples of the In-game Betting Tool in action. One using the in-game total on an MLB game. Notice the vig-free price of over 10.5 should be -138, but it’s available at DraftKings for -135. The second example shows that the fair price for NYY -5.5 is +153, that makes the OAK +5.5 naturally be -153. Looks like +5.5 -135 at DraftKings is also +EV.
We’ve found that sportsbooks are slow to countermeasure in-game bettors. They can’t effectively calculate the CLV or EV of the bettor. It comes down to win/loss and they have a blind spot of believing in-game bettors are a goldmine for the sportsbook. We think you’ll find that in-game betting is an incredible way to profit using Unabated.
Look for the NFL In-game Betting Tool to debut Week 1 of the NFL season. The College Football version of the tool is expected to launch by early October.
The In-game Odds Screen and the In-game Betting Tools require a Premium subscription.
7. Learning To Model With Our Video Library
To many aspirational bettors, coming up with their own projections is how they would like to beat sports betting. That can involve building quantitative models and often the learning curve is daunting. Especially when you factor in learning programming languages or advanced statistical concepts. It appears to many to be beyond their grasp.
At Unabated, we are building what we hope will become an extensive library of video instruction to help you along your path to becoming a quantitative modeler. We have a series of short digestible videos from a guy that doesn’t waste letters in his name, T. He has a great way of explaining the sometimes complex world of modeling. He also walks you through everything using Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets.
If you’re looking to get into sports modeling, this is a great place to start. There’s no need to learn complex statistical theories, new programming languages, or new software. This summer, T built upon a Baseball Lineup Model that explored the effect of player replacement in a lineup. He also explored building a pitcher strikeout model. Next he is moving into building models for NFL Player Props. These videos will help you create your own projections for use in conjunction with our NFL Player Prop Simulator.
Additionally, I’ve been known to make an instructional video or two and I’ve got some great ideas of my own that I plan to work on in the months to come. These videos are completely free to watch and learn from. Check out these playlists if you haven’t already.
Our Educational Videos are free for all users.
8. The Unabated Props Odds Screen
Midway through the 2021 NFL season we launched our NFL Player Prop Simulator. For bettors who make their own projections or utilize projections from other sources, it was a game changer. Pricing out different yardage props for each player suddenly became much more accessible.
For 2022, we’re debuting another tool that we believe will be a game changer for bettors. The ability to shop prices on prop markets. An odds screen, dedicated to just player prop bets! In the past, you had to pull up every sportsbook and drill down endlessly through all the menus to find the price they have on a player prop. Now, you’ll be able to see those numbers aggregated on one screen for easy comparison.
However, that’s not all. We’ve taken the technology we originally implemented on the NFL Season Simulator and applied it to player props. You’ll be able to overlay the output of the simulator onto the props odds screen.
You can even use this to quantify the edge at different lines. It’s essentially like having our popular Compare Lines feature, but for props. For some bettors, this will be a magical tool for finding value on those prop bets.
Betting Props Isn’t The Account Killer It Once Was
One of the biggest paradigm shifts in sports betting since regulation began is the popularity of prop bets. The surge of new sports bettors that come from a background of betting on DFS has caused sportsbooks to be more receptive of prop bettors.
Previously, if you focused on just betting player props, you could expect your account to be quickly limited or counter-measured. Now, sportsbooks are seeing a large portion of their weekly handle revolving around player props. As a result, in the NFL especially, they’ve become a bit more tolerant of player prop action.
There’s still a long way to go before sportsbooks will really tolerate big prop action, but for bettors who typically bet $500 or less, there is a decent market out there for getting money down on player props.
You’re going to see a lot more about our new Player Prop Odds Screen in the coming weeks via livestreams and more detailed instructional articles. For now, you’ll have to drool over these sneak preview pictures. We suspect this is going to be a wildly popular feature.
The Props Odds Screen will require a Premium Subscription.
9. Pricing Alternate Lines With Unabated Betting Calculators
Our first product we unveiled to the betting world in the Summer of 2021 was our array of betting calculators. It remains the cornerstone of what separates Unabated from other resources out there for bettors. It’s also still the most versatile weapon you have in your arsenal when using Unabated.
Developed by Rufus Peabody and a team of talented data scientists, our betting calculators are comprised of the following tools:
Compare Lines – A tool to compare two betting lines to indicate which one provides the better price.
Derivatives– Alternate Lines* – Enter a Primary Line and an Alternate Line and we’ll tell you what that Alternate Line should be priced.
Derivatives – Partial Game* – Enter information about the full game odds, and we’ll price out partial game wagers like 1st Half, 1st Quarter, and 1st Period for you.
Closing Line Value – Use this calculator to find your CLV when the line moves between point spreads or totals between when you bet it and when it closes. You can also use this to calculate EV.
Hold Calculator – Quickly find the theoretical hold for the sportsbook in any line.
* – Premium Subscription required.
Ways to Win at Sports Betting With These Betting Calculators
In Part One of this article you got a glimpse of how these tools can be used in conjunction with the Unabated Line. They are also powerful on their own.
For instance, you can explore the pricing of alternate spreads and totals using Compare Lines or the Alternate Lines tool. There is a lot of value buried among alternate lines even when they don’t show as the Best Line. In this example, we see that the Unabated Line is over 6 -107 for the Tampa Bay/Miami game. The price at FanDuel doesn’t seem too special at over 6 -120.
However, if we dig into the menu at FanDuel, we find this list of Alternate Totals.
Using the Alternate Lines tool we can quickly price out various alternate totals. Doing so we find that the price of over 8.5 should be +234, but at FanDuel, it is +240. Betting on Over 8.5 +240 is a much better option than betting on over 6 -120. In fact, it’s a +1.8% Positive EV play. Had you looked at just primary lines, you wouldn’t be able to find a price better than the vig-free over 6 -107, but in the Alternate Lines there was value.
An Example Of Finding A Way To Win Using 1st Half Odds
Another popular calculator is our Partial Game tool. Finding value in halves and quarters is not unusual. Here’s a quick example. You’re line shopping for NFL 1st Half wagers and you see that a total of 21.5 is the standard price on the NYG/TEN Week 1 matchup. There are two outliers though. DraftKings has 22 and Caesars has 20.5. Inputting both into the Partial Game tool, you can see that only one produces an edge over the market consensus.
In this case, we wouldn’t try to hit the over 20.5 / under 22 middle. We’d focus on the poorer line and play the over 20.5 -110 with a slight edge.
Finding Closing Line Value
Another versatile tool is our Closing Line Value Calculator. The tool itself is very straightforward. You enter the bet you made, and what the closing line was, and it will produce your closing line value (CLV). CLV is a popular metric with bettors. It helps them be less results-oriented and more focused on whether they had a good bet.
If you want to know your EV for a bet, you can enter the vig-free price of the sharp closing line in this tool and the answer is also your EV. For example, you make an NFL wager of CIN -6 -110 and the line closes at -6.5 -110 at the book where you bet it. Your CLV there is +3.34%.
Since we didn’t remove the vig from the closing line, that number is just the movement relative to the closing line. If you enter the vig-free closing line of -6.5 +100, you’d see your EV is still slightly negative at -1.32%.
However, the book you used might not be the best barometer of what is sharp and what isn’t. You can use the Unabated Line closing value to get a better sense of your EV. In this hypothetical example, if the Unabated Line closed at -6.5 -105, then you’d use that vig-free line as the Closing Line. Now, you do have a +EV wager.
Finding Ways To Win At Sports Betting By Answering Tough Questions
The biggest advantage to our array of calculators and betting tools is how frequently you can use them to identify and quantify an edge. They are a Swiss Army Knife of functionality and since the data science behind them is quite complex, we strongly believe Unabated will continue to be the only place where you can use this unique array of tools.
For many sports bettors, one of the hardest parts about betting is not being able to quantify your edge easily. This is especially true for bettors that might be coming from a math background, or maybe formerly pursued advantage play as a card counter in Blackjack. The great thing about using these tools is we enable you to finally get those answers in many situations. These tools help clear a mental obstacle that blocks the path of many bettors.
Some of our Betting Tools require a Premium subscription.
You can read all the articles on our site. You can watch all the videos and read our lively Discord. However, for many it doesn’t actually click unless they see someone actively using our tools. Actually seeing a professional bettor at work and talking with them is paramount to understanding how winning betting is done.
This is one reason why we offer both free and premium livestreams on multiple platforms. For non-subscribers we have weekly livestreams during peak betting months. You can find Rufus, Peter, or myself frequently on these livestreams. The chat window is always open and we love answering your questions. We also have a large array of friends and guests to bring on. It’s a great opportunity to learn something new and interact with the presentation.
For more exclusive access, we offer Premium Livestreams to our subscribers. In these very informal half-hour broadcasts, it’s usually just me talking about my thoughts regarding a variety of betting topics. I tend to become loose-lipped in situations like these. I’ve pointed out more edges and angles on these short broadcasts than I could ever write about in a hundred articles. If you’ve ever wanted to hang out in a sportsbook with Rufus, Peter, or myself, these premium livestreams are probably as close as you’ll get.
Here’s one example of one of those premium livestreams.
Over the past two articles I’ve outlined ten ways to win using Unabated. However, this isn’t an exhaustive list and it certainly isn’t the final word on the topic. Unabated will never be a finished project.
Just like a good sports bettor, we are always finding ways to evolve. We want to stay one step ahead of the sportsbooks as well. We believe we have built a great data science team and tremendous engineering team to help make all of our fantastic ideas become usable reality.
Providing you with more ways to win at sports betting also creates sustainability in these edges as well. Not every Unabated user will be using the exact same approach. You are not a one-trick pony anymore. You are a multi-faceted warrior with many different ways to attack. Balance your attack and your opponent won’t know where you are going to strike next. Start your 7-day Free Trial today!
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