This is the revolutionary props simulator at Unabated. What this simulation tool allows you to do is enter your own projections for a player and then simulate that projected performance 10,000 times. Where this tool is most useful is in determining the relative value between different prop lines. Let’s walk through an example so you can quickly see the power.
Suppose you project that a Wide Receiver will have 4.1 catches for 59.6 yards. You check your sportsbooks and find a variety of lines on the player.
Over 52.5 -120
Under 52.5 -110
Over 54.5 -110
Under 54.5 -115
Over 56.5 +105
Under 56.5 -140
How much is a yard worth between these various lines? Prop bettors have struggled with that for ages. There is no chart that could answer that because it depends on the distribution of possible outcomes. The best way to successfully answer that question is to run a simulation of the results and then analyze the resulting distribution. Fortunately for you, Unabated takes a lot of the work out of this by enabling you to enter your projection and visually see how the distribution of results lays out. Let’s walk through what this output tells you.
First we see fair prices for every total in the distribution. This will help you identify which line presented the most value for your betting dollar. We also price out Yard Ranges for the distribution. You can display the distribution as a histogram showing the frequency of each result. You can also display the cumulative probability of the outcomes as well.
DFS players may find our Summary tab useful. We give you the likelihood the player having 100 or more yards in the game. Often a bonus trigger in DFS point scoring. We also give you both the Mean as well as the Median. This is useful information because you’ll find most sportsbooks price props based on the Median while your projection is based on the Mean. This is also why you shouldn’t use a sportsbook’s line as your projection.
We also allow you to see the projected receptions priced according to a poisson distribution. There is a cumulative probability graph as well.
Currently the props simulator is for the NFL and supports receptions and receiving yards for Wide Receivers, Tight Ends, and Running Backs. It also support rushes and rushing yards for Running Backs. We feel it’ll be a valuable tool when shopping for prop bets. Go ahead and give it a try.