Here we are with four weeks left in the season and the division races are largely decided. Except for the NFC South where they’re apparently scrapping to see who can be the first 7-10 division winner in NFL history. Hopefully your pools aren’t so dire. If you’re still alive, let’s see where the NFL Week 15 pick’em edges are.
Speaking of the NFC South, the Panthers are one of only two teams eliminated from playoff contention, and they’re sporting one of the bigger numbers in the Pick’em Edge Tool. Ain’t that just how it goes.
Carolina is a 3.5-point ‘dog at RunYourPool, but that’s against an Unabated Line of +3. Only 19.7 percent of players are rolling with the Panthers against the Falcons, which makes them, along with Chicago (32.4 percent) an attractive play for anyone who needs to take a chance on some questionable teams to close the gap with the leaders in their pools.
At Draftkings, the value is heavily on the Titans where you only have to lay less than a field goal against a Texans team that’s going to be playing without CJ Stroud, who was ruled out while still in the concussion protocol.
It’s the same story in the SuperContest when it comes to Titans-Texans. But there’s also value on the Seahawks against Philly, catching 4 when the consensus has dropped to 3. There was also some value on the Raiders so hopefully SuperContest players grabbed that with about 35 points to spare.
And one more Titans edge for the road in the Circa Millions. The Bears, Seahawks and Ravens are also posting solid numbers in a spate of games that get you on or off the 3 compared to the consensus line.
Have you been careful all year? Were you plotting out your course with one eye on the future while you navigated treacherous survivor waters?
If so, the future is now. Hopefully the Chiefs are still available to you in your survivor pools, because the pickings are slim otherwise. The Survivor Optimizer likes Kansas City, which is -420 at Circa Sports. The Niners (-800) and Dolphins (-485) are even bigger favorites if you still have them hanging around.
The Saints (-250) are in the next tier, and they’re at home. But they’re facing the Legend of Tommy Cutlets, so buyer beware.
What about the big-ticket contests? We analyzed the 13 remaining entries in Circa Survivor to see what everyone’s EV looked like down the stretch. The decision to chop or not is a complicated one for these contestants.
After coming up short in the third quarter of Circa Millions, Unabated is regrouping to take one more grab at the cash with the final quarterly prize.
Ultimately, the play was San Francisco -11, New Orleans -5, Green Bay -6.5, Denver +2.5 and … Jacksonville +3.5.
Worked out great.
The Jags’ failed two-point try cost us a precious game, and the Packers’ Monday Night field goal loss to the Giants left us at 3-2 to start the quarter.
What’s your play to build a 5-0 week? Tell us in the Discord. Just nothing that involves Doug Pederson, please.