How Unabated’s WNBA Player Props Projections Perform

How Unabated’s WNBA Player Props Projections Perform

Unabated Staff
Props
WNBA
July 8, 2024

 

Retail sportsbooks have massive menus filled with deep lineups in small-market sports that are ripe with opportunity to hunt out inefficient lines rich with expected value. WNBA props bettors are well aware of just how rich. 

These shouldn’t be construed as WNBA picks. This isn’t “the best Caitlin Clark plays today” or daily WNBA predictions.

We want you to learn the right process for betting WNBA props. That process including using simulation to convert mean projections from a source you consider sharp in order to have a solid foundation from which to analyze the prop market, which is priced using medians. We’ll explain why that’s important later. 

We do, though, believe strongly that our WNBA player props projections are sharp, and that our simulator tool is effective. These results, we hope, demonstrate why we believe that.

 

Who Creates Your WNBA Projections?

Our WNBA player prop projections are the work of Galin Dragiev and his team. Dragiev is one of the top WNBA DFS players in the world. 

He and his team spend hours every day approaching the projections both quantitatively – by analyzing usage, rotations, scoring rates, etc. – and qualitatively – by scouring player news, injury reports, and other analysis.

 

How have Unabated WNBA Player Props Projections Performed?

In a word: admirably.

 

 

Concierge Tier members – who get first crack at our projections – have seen the best results across the board. 

Through July 7:

  • Concierge members would be up $8,528 betting all 1,195 positive edges, assuming $100 units
  • The return on investment is 6.0 percent betting projections against a collective sportsbook median line at time of release

 

 

Premium members get access to WNBA player props projections about an hour after Concierge members do. It’s still been a profitable run.

Through June 23:

  • Premium members would be up $4,681 betting all 1,101 positive edges, assuming $100 units
  • The return on investment is 3.5 percent betting projections against that sportsbook median about one hour after the Concierge release

How Did You Calculate Your Results?

We track results for all players for whom a projection is released in the points, rebounds, and assists stat categories. This does not include three-pointers made or stat combo props such as rebounds + assists. 

Not all projections result in a positive edge. At time of release, there were 1,978 total projections, of which 1,195 showed positive edges. We track only the projections that show positive edges. 

To determine an edge and a line, we compare projections against a median line made up of sportsbooks supported on the Unabated WNBA Prop Odds Screen.

We also use $100 as our baseline unit – betting $100 on plus-money odds and to win $100 on minus-money odds. 

Because these results are based against median sportsbook lines, you likely will be able to do even better if you’re willing to do some line shopping. 

 

Why Do Your WNBA Player Props Projections Work?

 

The projections that Dragiev and his team put out are mean, or average, player projections. Sportsbook lines are based around median player performance numbers. 

You need to run mean projections through a simulator, like the one built into our Prop Odds Screen, in order to convert them to a median. (For more about why and how this works, we have an article and a video on means and medians in prop betting.)

The edges you see in the simulator are based around the mean projection’s distribution. Those distributions yield probabilities, which are converted to a price. The screen compares the fair price based on the projections to lines sportsbooks offer and show you an edge relative to the fair price. 

How Do I Use WNBA Player Props Projections?

Every day, we’ll post a message in the #concierge-alerts Discord channel telling you what time we plan to release projections for the slate. Sometimes we know the night before what time the release will go out, sometimes it’s not until that day. 

As we mentioned, Concierge members get first dibs on the projections. Concierge Tier requires a Premium membership and includes several other benefits beyond WNBA player props projections, including private channels in the Discord. If you’re interested in learning more about Concierge, you can read more here.

To use projections against the market at its softest, you need to be a Concierge member. 

Premium members get access to the projections roughly an hour after Concierge members. We’ll post a half-hour window when those will be released daily in the #projection-notes Discord channel.

Once the release is live, you can load them in the Prop Odds Screen by choosing “Unabated Concierge” under the projections drop-down. 

 

 

What’s the Minimum Edge I Should Bet? 

It’s a common question with no universal answer. The minimum edge you should take is the one you’re most comfortable with based on your own observation and experience. 

What we can tell you is that all positive edges are showing a positive ROI. We’re doing further analysis to determine if there are notable inflection points beyond that.

 

Is There Enough Sample Size?

We think more than 900 bets is enough sample to show that these projections are effective in taking on current markets as they stand. But markets do change over time. We’ll be updating these results weekly on Mondays throughout the season. Check back weekly to see where things stand. 

We also analyzed our 2023 results using the same methods. What we found is:

  • Concierge members would have won $11,485 over the course of the season (using $100 units) betting all positive edges at time of release.
  • Against the closing line, members would have won $5,777 (using $100 units) betting all positive edges available. We consider this the strongest possible signal of these projections’ efficacy.

 

How Else Can I Use These WNBA Player Props Projections?  

There are other ways to creatively apply these numbers in your betting. 

One of the easiest to to use them in DFS pick’em contests. Our DFS tools will help you identify the legs with the highest edge so you can quickly and easily assemble entries for PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy.

But that certainly isn’t the only way you could use them. We’ll leave that to your individual creativity and cunning.

 

Will I Get Limited Betting WNBA Props?

It’s a legitimate risk. How much you care about account health and how you manage it is a very individual issue. But there a few blanket recommendations we can make:

  • Use anonymous kiosks. If kiosk betting is available, use it when you can. You’ll keep your play and your account information separate.
  • Bet off-screen outs. We don’t have every book on our screen, but assume that if you can see them on the screen, they can see these numbers too. It’s not hard for them to put two and two together if you’re blasting off every day in a small market exactly when projections are released.  
  • Take the occasional break. Spread your action out when you can. On days when there may only be one game on the schedule, it’s not a bad idea to take a pass. When you’re robotically and relentlessly bludgeoning the books, they’re going to start paying attention.

 

Additional Resources

If you have any questions, reach out to us any time on the Discord

If you’re ready to sign up for a Premium account, visit our pricing page

To become a Concierge member, first activate a Premium membership, then head to the Concierge page.

 

Disclaimer

These projections have been strong from 2023 until today. That’s no guarantee they’ll continue to be in the future. Markets evolve and edges erode. We’re constantly evolving our process to stay ahead of it. 

Want to learn more about Premium, Concierge or the projections? Sign up for a free  one-on-one demo today and get a free five-day trial of Unabated Premium!7

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