More Liquid Markets And Caitlin Clark: Four Tips For Tackling WNBA Props In 2024

There were record eyeballs on the NCAA women’s tournament and record handle on women’s college hoops at the betting window. Ticket sales are reportedly through the roof and the league just announced expansion. Caitlin Clark turned pro and the ink’s already dry on her Nike deal. So with all this added attention, what can bettors expect from WNBA props in 2024? 

For starters, increased popularity could lead to increased liquidity in the market. Which could mean bigger limits on plays and more tolerance for action before you have to sweat limits. 

Are you ready for it? 

Last season, Unabated debuted its WNBA player prop projections, and the market took notice. Within a couple of weeks, sportsbooks were aggressively moving lines within minutes of our projections dropping. 

Galin Dragiev, who’s been active in the WNBA DFS scene, crafted last year’s numbers. This year he’ll be leading the team that will release projections now through the end of the WNBA season in October.

Before the start of last season he had some advice for bettors coming to the women’s game from men’s college basketball or the NBA. After doing prop projections for a full season, he has a four takeaways from last year when we look at what bettors can expect this season, and how to use these projections.

1.) This Could Be the Year for Bigger Markets

Last year it was readily apparent that the market was reacting to releases fairly quickly.  In order to help Unabated members get the most bang for their buck when limits were higher, we started releasing later in the day. 

Still, we heard from users along the way who saw their accounts slapped with fairly aggressive limits.

With increased interest this season, it’s possible this year could see much more liquidity in the market as a whole. It may mean more efficiency, but overall it should be good for bettors. 

For starters, it might mean more sites rolling out deeper menus when it comes to WNBA props.

“Demand is going to be much, much higher, mostly because of Caitlin Clark,” Dragiev said. “With the higher demand I’m hoping that we’ll see higher limits and more lines at more sites. Last year, there were some big sites that never got into the WNBA prop game. With all the popularity this year, I’m hoping there will be more places to get action.”

2.) The Caitlin Clark Factor

This past spring if you turned on ESPN, or the local news, or logged onto social media or tried to hide in a quiet, dark room far away from civilization, someone, somewhere, would materialize and pop off with opinions on Caitlin Clark.

The question, then, is how that kind of buzz will affect her prop markets, especially at the start of the season?

“That’s part of the tricky part of trying to win is trying to figure all this stuff out,” Dragiev said. “It depends on whether or not limits increase. If this turns into a bigger market, it’s going to be hard for books to overinflate numbers. At the end of the day if they’re taking some real action, there are going to be smart people who are going to notice that the numbers are overinflated.

“If the limits don’t go up and this stays a niche market, I think it’s possible some of the stuff gets overinflated. That’s something that we’re going to have to look at and see. As of right now, it’s hard for me to say the numbers are going to be overinflated or not.” 

The challenge in projecting Clark early in the season is largely similar to the way the team projects any other rookie. 

It depends on the player and the situation she’s coming into.

“I know she’s a little bit different than some other top rookies, but if you look at Sabrina Ionescu or other top overall picks in the past, they’ve also had a rookie year in the WNBA,” he said. “The way we usually approach that is we try to find some kind of comparison and see how those players did in their rookie years. She’s a ball-dominant guard. She also could be in a starting lineup with another ball-dominant guard in Kelsey Mitchell.”

3.) Follow the Beat

Information carries a ton of weight in this market, and spending some time curating sources can pay dividends.

If you’re going to be betting WNBA props regularly, pay attention to beat writers for each team. The Athletic has several, and area newspapers in WNBA markets will all have their own beat writers. And Concierge members, who get access to projections at the time of release, will be able to interact with the team on Discord and ask questions about the context around a release.

When you do get a good nugget of information about an injury or absence, take a little time to think through how it’s going to affect the rest of the team. 

“The most important stuff is just using common sense around injuries,” Dragiev said. “If a dominant center gets hurt, how does that impact opposing centers? How does that impact a team’s rebounding? How does that impact opponents’ rebounding?

If a player who gets 30 percent of a team’s minutes at that position is replaced by someone who might normally only get 10 percent, don’t expect it to be a plug-and-play situation.

“That backup with a 10 percent usage rate is not going to turn into LeBron. A lot of that usage is going to go to her teammates.”

4.) Make WNBA Props Make Sense

Just because there’s an edge on the screen doesn’t mean you should automatically take it. And you should be especially wary of unusually large edges that have lingered on the screen all day without getting snapped up.

That’s true not just of WNBA props, but of any edge you might see on any screen.

One way to help mitigate wayward edges? Blend in Unabated’s market-based projections to regress projection numbers toward current, updated market lines.

“A 10 percent edge at the time of release is better than a 10 percent edge five minutes before lock,” Dragiev said. “That’s one of those things where you need to use some common sense. If this has been sitting here all day and it’s still showing 10 percent, it’s probably not 10 percent. That’s where some of the blending would probably be helpful. I would probably blend more towards the end of the day.”

Concierge-tier members will receive WNBA player prop projections at time-and-date of release and will be notified of release time in the Concierge-only Discord channels. Premium members will be able to access projections one hour after Concierge members. Interested in learning more about Concierge? Sign up for a one-on-one demo today.