I often say that the single sharpest thing you can do as a sports bettor is to shop lines. Get the best price. Hopefully, most of the audience that reads this article already knows this. That’s why they find value in Unabated. For years, I’ve hoped more people would realize this and begin their… Continue reading Why I’m Finally Starting to Believe in Evolution

The object is still to get the ball across the goal line. But the Canadian Football League isn’t just the NFL with a Rush soundtrack. If you want to learn how to bet the CFL, you need to learn a few key differences.  The first question might be: why bet the CFL? Like all… Continue reading How To Bet The CFL: A Primer

A new WNBA season starts May 14 and, if you haven’t noticed, women’s basketball is having a moment. There were record ratings for the NCAA women’s tournament. Caitlin Clark became a phenomenon. If you’re just starting to look at women’s hoops at the window, we’ve got tools to help you master WNBA betting using… Continue reading Five WNBA Betting Tips For NBA And College Bettors

We’re rolling deep into the fall now, with everything that entails: hoodies; increased weekend wing consumption; buying Halloween candy early “just to get ahead” and then buying all new candy two weeks later after you eat all the Twix. Oh, and MLB and WNBA playoffs. With playoffs come series bets and with series bets… Continue reading Intro to Data Science Extra: Build a Playoff Series Simulator

There are few joys in life quite like drifting off into a Jim Nantz-induced slumber on a quiet Sunday morning and waking up in time to catch the final few holes of The Masters. Bringing home a bomb price (hello, Trevor Immelman) might be up there. Before you pick your stable for the weekend,… Continue reading Mistakes to Avoid When Betting on The Masters

They’ve been playing The Masters for the better part of 90 years. There aren’t any surprises left at Augusta National. And if you’re learning how to bet golf, there’s a little upside to that.  Maybe you only bet one tournament a year. Or maybe you’re tempted by big numbers in the outright winner markets.… Continue reading How to Bet Golf: Analyzing the Course

One of the most pivotal days of the college basketball season is upon us, Selection Sunday. Spawning from the NCAA Selection Committee’s choices will be countless competitive matches, underdog stories, and life-changing moments — and that’s just describing the betting action. March Madness creates a plethora of opportunities to bet on how the rest… Continue reading March Madness Betting Strategies: -103 Odds & Other Approaches

March Madness creates a betting frenzy at sportsbooks everywhere. Along with the Super Bowl, it is the event that seemingly everyone has to have a bet on. Also like the Super Bowl, it is an event that creates a cornucopia of prop betting options. March Madness prop bets are typically tournament-long propositions. The time… Continue reading Solving March Madness Prop Bets

March Madness is nearly upon us. Whether you are entering a bracket contest with friends or getting into the weeds betting NCAA props and futures, you’ll want to be able to quantify each school’s chances of making it through each round. If you’re building NCAA basketball power rankings you can use those to fuel… Continue reading Building NCAA Basketball Power Rankings And A Bracket Simulator

MLB betting may start in earnest with Opening Day, but for the baseball bettor, it’s more like the first day of the first MLB season of the year.  That’s because the baseball calendar is best thought as three distinct seasons. Fortunately, every year the start of the year is the easiest “season” to beat. … Continue reading MLB Betting Is Three Seasons

The Super Bowl is over. The Chiefs’ three-peat dreams are buried. The offseason is upon us. And if you’re going to keep things rolling, you need to know the difference between betting NFL vs. NBA props. No one wants to see an NFL season come to an end, but if you’ve been exclusively betting… Continue reading NFL Vs. NBA Props: Getting Ready For The Next Season

The 2024 Super Bowl is upon us. Buffalo and Washington fell by the wayside in the Conference Championships, and now we’re down to it. Philadelphia and Kansas City for the second time in three years. One game left to last us until next fall. And so many bettors want to make this one count, with… Continue reading 2025 Super Bowl Prop Bets: A Primer For The Big Game

It’s the only menu out there that makes the Cheesecake Factory feel like a flash card. It’s the Super Bowl prop bet menu, and it’s your best friend for the next few days. Where do you even start with NFL player prop bets during the Super Bowl? With team-wide projections? With the players? With… Continue reading Pie For Dinner: Rufus Peabody’s NFL Player Prop Process

Once the lights went out on the Conference Championships, books hustled to the line to try to be the first to get their prop menus in order. The Super Bowl game props were some of the first ones posted. But is there value here? Maybe you’ve kicked the tires on “race to X points”… Continue reading When To Avoid, And When To Attack, Super Bowl Game Props

The lead up to the big game on Feb. 9 can seem like an eternity. However, there are a lot of key moments you won’t want to miss between now and then. It may appear to be a full two weeks between games, but much of the value can be found at key points… Continue reading When To Bet — Your Super Bowl Betting Timeline

Through 18 weeks from early September to early January, you had your routine. Betting the NFL involved checking early lines on Mondays and Tuesdays. Then reacting to injury information on Thursdays and Fridays. Hunting player props on Fridays and Saturdays. Then finishing up with teasers on Sunday mornings. You dabbled with some halftimes and… Continue reading NFL Playoff Betting Can Require A Different Approach

The 2023-24 college basketball season started Nov. 6. But if you were betting top-down early in the season, you may have found yourself on the variance roller coaster. Lousy coaster, too. It doesn’t even come with a free T-shirt for surviving the ride. And if you were riding it, you probably wanted to know… Continue reading When Does College Basketball Become More Efficient?

Introduction by Jack Andrews: Finding your own unique path is how you can achieve your goals in sports betting. Sometimes it can be very useful to read about another bettor’s journey to help shape your own. I was impressed by the journey Tomas outlined on his Twitter account. I’ve asked him to expand on… Continue reading NBA Betting: Finding Your Path To Profitability

Positive EV wagers are what separates the serious, playing-to-win sports bettor from the casual gambler. Unabated provides you with a wide array of tools and resources to help you become a more intelligent sports bettor. These tools come with a slight learning curve and some of them require a Premium Subscription. However, we believe… Continue reading Tools and Strategies for Positive EV Wagers

Betting college football, like college basketball, runs on those two magic words: surface area. With more than 250 FBS and FCS college football teams programs, it’s a significant amount of information for books to properly track and defend. And when there’s a wide surface area that’s lightly defended, that means tons of opportunities for… Continue reading User’s Guide: Betting On College Football Using Unabated

It’s five minutes until kickoff on Sunday. All your pregame action for the early slate is locked. Nothing to do but kick back and watch it all play out. For about a minute or two. Then it’s time to start planning your day-by-day NFL betting strategy. Not all bets are created equal, and neither… Continue reading Football Sunday To Sunday: A Day-By-Day NFL Betting Strategy Guide

For many bettors, an NFL week isn’t complete without a healthy dose of prop bets. Betting on player performances has replaced betting on their favorite teams for many American bettors. Betting NFL player props may seem straightforward. On the surface, it appears beatable. Indeed, there is a lot of profit potential in betting player… Continue reading The Biggest Mistake You’re Making When Betting NFL Player Props

NFL Teaser bets have been a known sharp play for the last 20 years. However, as markets tend towards efficiency they have become increasingly harder to beat. In this article, we’ll recap why NFL teasers are beatable, how you can beat NFL teaser bets, some teaser pitfalls to avoid, and also some new ways to… Continue reading How To Build Profitable NFL Teaser Bets

We previously looked at NFL handicapping contests for 2024. Now we’ll update your NFL survivor contest strategy for 2024. Survivor contests take NFL season-long contests to a whole other level with their simplicity. Pick one game each week. If your teams wins, you move on. If your team loses, you are eliminated. Oh, and… Continue reading Your 2024 NFL Survivor Contest Strategy

Our Props+ tier is geared toward prop players looking to get an edge in these beatable markets, but it doesn’t stop with props.  Not only do you get resources to beat popular pick’em and survivor pools, but you also gain several features that will help you with betting sides and totals, too.  Props+ members get… Continue reading How To Get The Most Out Of Your Props+ Membership

With thousands of mens and womens’ matches year round, there’s no shortage of opportunity to bet on tennis. But volume peaks with fan engagement during the four majors – the Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, and US Open – and sportsbooks expand their menus throughout these tournaments to include various props and derivatives.  Smaller… Continue reading How to Bet Wimbledon: A Guide to Tennis Majors

 Sports betting isn’t easy. There’s so much to keep up with and factor into your betting and everywhere you turn, someone is trying to sell you something. To help you out, I have five completely free sports betting shortcuts you should be using in your journey.  I’ve been a professional gambler for over… Continue reading 5 Sports Betting Shortcuts Sharp Bettors Know

Editors Note: For major tournaments on the golf circuit, we’re fortunate to have Tom Peabody, Rufus’s brother, to give us a glimpse inside their process as they prepare for the event. In 2022, the US Open was at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. Here, Tom explores how he and Rufus planned to distribute… Continue reading Betting the US Open: Inside the Process

There were record eyeballs on the NCAA women’s tournament and record handle on women’s college hoops at the betting window. Ticket sales are reportedly through the roof and the league just announced expansion. Caitlin Clark turned pro and the ink’s already dry on her Nike deal. So with all this added attention, what can… Continue reading More Liquid Markets And Caitlin Clark: Four Tips For Tackling WNBA Props In 2024

So you’ve found a trove of data. And you’ve found a couple of correlations. What do you do with it all when you’re trying to build a sports betting model? It’s time to apply a linear or logistic regression. First, let’s take a quick look back at how we got here: In Part 1… Continue reading Intro To Data Science Part 5: Linear And Logistic Regression

The lifespan of an edge is fragile, like holding an Under 8.5 ticket in a 6-2 game that Kyle Finnegan is trying to close out. Some of them can be measured in just months. Some, maybe mere days. But sometimes you get hold of one that can carry you for years before the world… Continue reading Angle Autopsies: The Ups And Downs Of Betting Barometric Pressure

Major League Soccer kicks off its season this weekend, and with it comes MLS betting. We’ve heard from one or two or 50 people who swear up and down that baseball is too fickle and they’re not going anywhere near the diamond. (We get it. You can only suffer through so many closer meltdowns in… Continue reading The Beginner’s Guide To MLS Betting

Editor’s Note: Unabated NBA is currently on sale. Right now you can get it through the end of the 2024-25 playoffs for just $499. Last season, the NBA instituted a new player participation policy. Strict rules now dictate how teams report injuries and when teams can rest players. If it was enough of a… Continue reading Fine Tune Your NBA Prop Betting Strategy Using Unabated NBA

“Hedging a bet” refers to a betting strategy used to reduce risk or guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome of an event. Essentially, it involves placing a second bet against the original bet that you made, thereby ensuring that you will either minimize your loss or lock in a profit. Here’s how it works:… Continue reading Should I Hedge My Bet?

I’ve been an Advantage Player for over 20 years — far longer than I ever expected to be. The secret to my success and longevity is simple: Always have many arrows in your quiver when you plan your attack. You always need to have multiple ways to find an edge or else you’re easily… Continue reading Ten Ways To Win At Sports Betting With Unabated

By now you’ve read the book Interception from Ed Miller and Matt Davidow. (And if you haven’t, you should mash buttons on Amazon to get it.) In the book, Miller and Davidow include 12 betting angles you can add to your playbook right now.  They range in scope and type. Some of these angles… Continue reading Betting Angles From “Interception” Using Unabated

Arbitrage betting is a betting strategy that involves taking advantage of differences in odds among different bookmakers to make a profit regardless of the outcome of an event. The idea behind arbitrage betting is to place bets on all multiple outcomes of an event at different bookmakers, in such a way that the combined payouts… Continue reading Arbitrage Betting Guide: Risk Free Riches Or A Mirage?

Professional gamblers live by two letters: EV. The goal of any aspiring professional is to maximize your expected value. Focusing solely on wagers which have positive expected value should produce profits that converge to meet those expectations. A disciplined bettor thinks in terms of EV and trusts the actual value isn’t far behind. However,… Continue reading When Maximizing EV Don’t Be Fooled By PV

The following is an excerpt from the Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow book Interception: The Secrets of Modern Sports Betting, from a section on practical angles bettors can use when they take on the extensive betting menus offered at most modern books. Misalignment Between a Sport’s Rules and the Model’s Rules This category is somewhat… Continue reading “Interception” Excerpt: When Rules And Models Aren’t Aligned

Building or sourcing NFL projections accurate enough to beat props with is an ongoing quest for any bettor. Accurate projections are the Holy Grail, but to get them in fighting shape, it requires constant maintenance and careful attention to weekly shifts in playing time, target share, weather and more. John Paulsen, the projections guru… Continue reading Rookie QBs And Other NFL Projection Tips With John Paulsen

Less than a year ago, I laid out Ten Ways to Win at Sports Betting With Unabated. In the introduction to that article I pointed out that the most successful advantage players I know have multiple ways to attack. I presented 10 viable ways to use Unabated to find plus-EV plays. But I was… Continue reading Ten MORE Ways to Win Betting Sports With Unabated

The days are shortening up, Halloween candy has been on the shelves for weeks, and there’s a non-zero chance you’re sleeping on your old NFL sheets between now and kickoff Sept. 7.  With less than two weeks to go before the NFL returns it is, in short, futures season. Unabated’s NFL Season Simulator is… Continue reading When Futures Go Wild

Last season the New York Times invited me to take over as their NFL handicapper. I would have to pick every game of the season against the spread and write a couple of paragraphs previewing the game and explaining my pick. I also would be able to write a short column each week to… Continue reading How I Use Unabated – David Hill

Insurance: You have to get it for your car and you never take it in blackjack. But what do you do with it on Underdog Sports? If you’re coming to daily fantasy sports pick’em contests from a sports betting background, the terminology may be new but the concepts are fairly simple. Understanding how the… Continue reading Use Breakeven Percent To Fine Tune Your DFS Pick’em Strategy

We’ve waited nearly six months to bet on NFL football again and now the preseason is upon us. Betting the NFL preseason is an exercise in contradiction. Over the next three weeks the NFL requires teams to play games that don’t count. Almost universally, the teams will tell you they’re not trying to win… Continue reading The Do’s & Don’ts Of Betting The NFL Preseason

In this episode, T is tying together the data gathering, bootstrapping, and weighting that we did in the first two episodes. He’ll be building a basic player prop model for the NFL that can be used to predict receptions, targets, and yardage. This example builds a project for Tight End receiving that takes into account… Continue reading How to Create NFL Player Projections For Player Props

When last we met, we had sourced a trove of batter data from the 2021 MLB season. We started to look at some basic correlations among variables for hitters. Now it’s time to introduce sports betting data to the mix. By doing so we can begin to answer the most crucial question of our… Continue reading Intro to Data Science Part 4: Testing Your Hypothesis

Summer is drawing to a close. Schools are soon to be bustling, the echoes of children’s laughter from their season of freedom are still palpable, and the residual scent of backyard BBQs lingers in the air. These lingering signs of summer that tempt many to squeeze in one last outdoor adventure have an opposite effect… Continue reading College Football Betting Strategies In 2023

Welcome on in everyone. I am T and today I want to talk about the beta distribution. Now, a lot of people have been asking questions on Twitter and YouTube about what a beta distribution is and there’s been a lot of complicated answers out there. I’m hoping to explain this as simply as… Continue reading Using Beta Distribution

Our favorite Excel/Google Sheets betting wizard is back! In this video, T shows you how to build a pitcher vs batter spreadsheet that can then power Monte Carlo Simulations to help you make better pitcher strikeout projections. As with his other videos, T isn’t giving you a ready to use model. He’s teaching how… Continue reading Building A Pitcher vs Batter Simulator

Another major weekend is upon us. California is the center of the golf universe, amateurs get their big shot, and Brooks Koepka is a short price on a big stage. But that’s not the biggest story in the game right now. The pending shakeup on the PGA Tour that will come with the infusion… Continue reading What Can Brooks Koepka Tell Us About The State Of Golf Betting?

In the universe of parlays, teasers have their adherents, regular parlays are king, and the less said about single-game parlays the better. But we’re not here to talk about those plays. No, we’re here to talk about a wager that can sometimes be daunting to novices, but fills its own niche: the round robin… Continue reading The Round Robin Bet: The Variance-Reducing Parlay Play

In our last lesson, we learned some basic commands to fetch data and export it into .csv files that we could work with in a spreadsheet program like Excel or Google Sheets. Now that we’ve got all those beautiful columns and rows, what, exactly, do we do with it? We’ll start by exploring sports… Continue reading Intro to Data Science Pt. 3: Data and Basic Correlation

Before we can settle down and get to the business of analyzing data, first we need some data. You probably already figured that part out. There’s a crush of sports betting data out there; all we have to do is go get it.  While we can’t provide an exhaustive list on places to source… Continue reading Intro to Data Science Part 2: Sports Betting Data Basics

If building sports betting models to beat the NFL or NBA were easy … well, you’d already be part of a large group of sophisticated bettors who move markets with every wager.  If you’re not in the fold with other market-moving quants but you want to explore the concepts behind them, you might be… Continue reading Intro to Data Science: The Road to Sports Betting Models

The (British) Open, like the other three majors, is one of the biggest weeks of the year for our betting operation, and this past week was no different. We had one of our highest volume weeks of the year, though not quite as high as the other majors. As the dust settles in the wake… Continue reading Inside The Process: Betting The Open With Tom & Rufus Peabody

Binomial distribution A type of distribution that measures the likelihood of two possible, but mutually exclusive, outcomes. In other words, a success or failure.  Binomial distributions are used when you have a set amount of trials and the probability of success is the same for all trials. It is running X trials and recording… Continue reading Intro to Data Science: Glossary

We’ve talked before about how you can set your own prices on betting exchanges, in effect, setting yourself up as the house. You can create and offer your own two-way markets at prices you set that ensure you’re getting the best of it, no matter what. Gina Fiore and Sarah Tolagson of Prophet Exchange show… Continue reading Set Your Own Prices On Betting Exchanges

In this episode, T shows you how you can create your own Monte Carlo Simulator in Excel. This is useful if you want to attempt to analyze a prop that Unabated doesn’t offer in our Player Prop Odds Screen. The concepts in this video work with situations where you have a Normal statistical distribution. However,… Continue reading How To Create A Monte Carlo Simulator

The house always wins, right? We’ve heard that once or twice. Our friends at Prophet Exchange recently overhauled the way they list games, and it got us thinking about how the savvy bettor can use betting exchanges to, in effect, become the house.  Initially, Prophet ran spreads solely at even money. Because they weren’t… Continue reading Using Betting Exchanges To Be Your Own Book

On Friday, we updated our look at NFL handicapping contests for 2022. Today we’re going to update our take on NFL survivor contests. Survivor contests take NFL season-long contests to a whole other level with their simplicity. Pick one game each week. If your teams wins, you move on. If your team loses, you are… Continue reading NFL Survivor Contests: Outwit Outlast Outplay Your Opponents

When it comes to bang for your buck, few wagers in a sportsbook give you the value that an NFL Pickem Contest can give you. Both public bettors as well as sharp bettors love handicapping contests. Sportsbooks love them as well. It’s a rare win/win/win for all involved. Taking a few minutes to educate… Continue reading NFL Pickem Contest Strategy – Winning A Season Long Battle

It’s time to transition from building baseball models to building football models. In Part One of our Football Prop Model, T is showing step-by-step of one method to overcome the innate small sample sizes in NFL statistics. The process is called Bootstrapping. After this brief video, you’ll be familiar in how to use it in… Continue reading Overcome Small Sample Sizes With Bootstrapping

In Part Five of our Baseball Lineup Model, T is showing step-by-step how he used linear regression via the built-in Data Analysis Tools in Excel to project a pitcher strikeout percentage. This video builds on concepts covered in Part One, Part Two, Part Three, and Part Four. Key Concepts Using Regression Analysis To Build A… Continue reading Using Linear Regression In Your Modeling

Introduction by Captain Jack If you’re active on Twitter, you may have recently seen a tweet thread from our guest contributor who goes by the name, Telemachus. He outlined how he discovered a weakness in the way a sportsbook graded player prop wagers that enabled him to have a large advantage over the house. He… Continue reading Real Life Betting Angle: Turning The Tables On Caesars

In Part Four of our Baseball Lineup Model, T is building a basic pitcher strikeout model using data from baseball-reference.com. This video can be a key building block in building out a full game simulator as well as more complex models. This video builds on concepts covered in Part One, Part Two, and Part Three. Key… Continue reading Building A Pitcher Strikeout Model

In Part Three of our Baseball Lineup Model, T is using splits to help identify angles in his data. We’ll see how splits can create strong projections and how to deal with small sample sizes. This video builds on concepts covered in Part One and Part Two. Key Concepts Using Splits Identifying Which Splits Are… Continue reading VIDEO: Using Splits To Identify Key Data