How To Get The Most Out Of Your Props+ Membership

Our Props+ tier is geared toward prop players looking to get an edge in these beatable markets, but it doesn’t stop with props. 

Not only do you get resources to beat popular pick’em and survivor pools, but you also gain several features that will help you with betting sides and totals, too. 

Props+ members get real-time odds from one market-making book on the Odds Screen to help understand where the market is and where it might be going. 

You also can now use most of the betting tools available to members. We’ve already covered how to use the tools elsewhere, but here’s a brief overview of what they are and where to start with them.

Betting Tools

• The Compare Lines Calculator is an essential tool in the toolbox that allows you to compare apples to apples when lines differ. In an NFL game,which line is better: +3.5 (-130) or +3 (-105)? Learn how to use this calculator and compare side and total numbers effectively in multiple sports. 
• The Closing Line Value Calculator is your best tool for evaluating the quality of your bet in major markets. Calculate your CLV or even your expected value of bets when you use vig-free closing lines.. Read or watch more about how and why to use the CLV Calculator.
• Hedge or let it ride? Hedge betting isn’t about mitigating risk. It’s about maximizing bankroll growth.The Hedge Betting Calculator takes several variables into account and shows you how to move forward. 
• The Prop Odds Screen is home base for the Props+ player. Compare prop lines across multiple books in real time. It also includes an in-line simulator to convert projections to actionable edges. To understand the math behind the in-line simulator, you can start with the stand-alone Props Simulator for NFL, NBA, CFB and WNBA props. Check out how it converts mean projections to medians and uses distributions to find fair prices based on projections. 
• It’s the too in-line simulator on the Prop Odds Screen.
  
  This video shows you how it works. The gist is simple, though: You use the drop-down menu and use one of our available projection sets, or upload your own. Use the green simulate button to run your projections through the Props Simulator and see what your edge is according to your player projections.
  
  You can also blend multiple projection sets together. Choose which numbers you want to blend, weight them, and we’ll do the rest.
• Our Prop Odds Screen also includes market-based projections. These are projections derived from current market lines, updating as the market moves. It’s possible to use market-based projections to hunt outlier lines at some books, though we recommend using them to blend into existing projection sets or your custom numbers. Blending in MBPs will regress projections to the market and generate truer edges.
• You can choose preloaded projections from some third-party sources. (Some require you to have a subscription to their service.) In MLB, that includes The BATX. In NFL it includes Run the Sims, The BLITZ, and 4 for 4. In WNBA, Unabated produces our own projections which are available to Premium and Concierge members.
• If you prefer to use your own custom projections, that option is available, too. Custom projections can be blended with third-party sources or market-based projections, as well. 

Once you’re familiar with the tools, it’s time to apply some technique. Here are a few resources to help you better understand prop markets, creating projections, beating DFS pick’em sites, and NFL contest strategy.. 

Prop Betting Strategy

• What are the three steps to profitable prop betting? Captain Jack has a video that lays it all out. 
• The crux of the video is median vs. mean in prop betting. The short version is sportsbook lines are largely based on a player’s median stats. Projections, though, are mean numbers. Here’s why that’s important, and why simulation is a prop bettor’s best friend. 
• Creating your own projections can be a great way to get a unique edge on the rest of the market. Here are a few pointers to get you started, using only Excel.
• We also have a video series on creating NFL prop projections.
• More of a baseball bettor? Build a pitcher strikeout model or go through the whole MLB modeling video library.
• If you’re going to learn how to generate your own NFL prop projections, you may as well learn from the best. Rufus Peabody shared some of his secrets to projecting and betting props ahead of the 2023 Super Bowl. 

DFS Pick’em Tools and Strategy

• The DFS Lineup Optimizer will help you navigate PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy with ease. Load up third-party projections or bring your own. Blend them and use the tool to start putting together entry slips where you can see your overall edge.

• Should you send in five-man entries? Six-man? Insurance or no? We talked to a top DFS player to show you winning strategies for maximum ROI when playing DFS pick’em site. 
• Speaking of top DFS players, our own Peter Jennings is no stranger to the top of traditional DFS leaderboards. Here’s how he approaches our DFS pick’em tools.

Pools Tools and Strategy

• If you’ve ever had million-dollar dreams as a football bettor, you may have thrown down for contests like the Supercontest or Circa Survivor. Our NFL Pick’em Edge Tool and NFL Survival Pool Optimizer can help you make sense of navigating these deep waters.
• The Pick’em Edge Tool lets you see quickly how good a play stale contest numbers are compared to the current market.
• The Survivor Pool Optimizer takes into account the size of your pool, the edge on the next week’s pick, and what your path looks like once a team is removed. It dynamically updates based on your pick. You can even lock picks in later weeks outside your suggested path and it re-routes the rest of your picks around it.
• Why play contests? Those big-money top prizes are plenty of incentive. Here are some general guidelines for approaching handicapping contests.
• Some of the same concepts apply to survivor contests. Always make sure your strategy aligns with rules and incentives.
• Read how one Unabated member outlasted the competition and made it to the end of Circa Survivor – miscklicks, swaps, hedges and all.