Simulators are a crucial resource for any serious prop bettor. The tools at Unabated sim player performance 10,000 times to generate a distribution of outcomes. You can use these to make sharper, more informed bets.
But as we’ve said repeatedly, simulations are only as good as their inputs. To get sharp edges, you need sharp NFL player prop projections to begin with.
We’ve been working to expand the number of projection sets that integrate with the Unabated Prop Odds Screen, and today, we’re happy to add Run the Sims and THE BLITZ to that mix as well.
Run the Sims is a major destination among daily fantasy sports players, as well as among prop bettors.
“Any NFL projection set is going to represent countless hours of focused attention every week,” founder Justin Freeman said. “And I have so much respect for anyone trying to tackle NFL projections seriously. But what sets our projections apart is the decade of experience we have built into our models and our ability to identify and accurately project ambiguous situations. And we stress test that with our own personal bankrolls.
Run the Sims projections are free for Essentials and Premium users.
These NFL player prop projections join Pro Football Focus, CapWize, NumberFire and FantasyPros among projection sets available to any Unabated subscriber. Projections from 4for4 require a new or existing subscription to their service before they can be integrated with Unabated.
Keeping NFL Player Prop Projections Sharp
The 2023 season has been notable so far for lower totals (full-game Unders are 64-41 on the season so far). It’s something the projection-makers are keeping an eye on as they tweak their models.
“Scoring and offense in general are down this year, continuing a trend that started last season,” THE BLITZ creator Derek Carty said. “There are a lot of possible reasons for this: defensive scheme trends, offensive play-calling trends, penalty trends, etc. THE BLITZ is designed to notice and incorporate this sort of thing on a general level while also not overreacting to small sample sizes. With how drastic some of these effects are, though, I do want to keep an eye on it and potentially make further refinements and react quicker if need be.”
Those in-season adjustments are critical, Freeman says, for staying ahead of the books.
“As the season goes on, the books are obviously getting sharper,” he said. “The good news is, we are, too, and at a more significant effective rate. We are continuously evolving our efficiency and volume projections to nail our projections with much more accuracy.”
Run the Sims and BLITZ projections can be blended along with any other supported projection source, or your own custom projections, on the Unabated Prop Odds screen. These features require an Essentials or Premium membership.