How to Create NFL Player Projections For Player Props

How to Create NFL Player Projections For Player Props

Unabated Staff
August 7, 2023

In this episode, T is tying together the data gathering, bootstrapping, and weighting that we did in the first two episodes. He’ll be building a basic player prop model for the NFL that can be used to predict receptions, targets, and yardage. This example builds a project for Tight End receiving that takes into account the target data and the opponent. Then he’ll be using the Unabated NFL Player Prop Simulator to simulate out his projection 10,000 times. You can use this information to improve on this model and create profitable projections that are applicable to NFL Player Props.


Key Concepts

  • Factoring in data beyond just performance averages. You’ll need to factor in quarterbacks, defenses, and more to get a more robust sports projection model.
  • Understanding the value of not only weighted mean, but weighted standard deviation
  • Using the Unabated tools to simulate your projection

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