The NFL season is over. For many, you won’t think about the NFL again until late summer. However, before your football handicapping takes a long nap in the deep recesses of your brain. It will be worth your time to do a simple exercise that will give you a jump start on next NFL… Continue reading 5 Questions To Conduct Your NFL Betting Post-Mortem Analysis

The 2024 Super Bowl is upon us. Buffalo and Washington fell by the wayside in the Conference Championships, and now we’re down to it. Philadelphia and Kansas City for the second time in three years. One game left to last us until next fall. And so many bettors want to make this one count, with… Continue reading 2025 Super Bowl Prop Bets: A Primer For The Big Game

One of the more unique offerings during the busy Super Bowl prop season is the cross-sport prop. It allows the bettor to use their knowledge of another sport and tie it into the big game. Since the other major sports are wise enough not to schedule a game that conflicts with America’s most-watched sporting… Continue reading Attacking Cross-Sport Super Bowl Props

It’s the only menu out there that makes the Cheesecake Factory feel like a flash card. It’s the Super Bowl prop bet menu, and it’s your best friend for the next few days. Where do you even start with NFL player prop bets during the Super Bowl? With team-wide projections? With the players? With… Continue reading Pie For Dinner: Rufus Peabody’s NFL Player Prop Process

Once the lights went out on the Conference Championships, books hustled to the line to try to be the first to get their prop menus in order. The Super Bowl game props were some of the first ones posted. But is there value here? Maybe you’ve kicked the tires on “race to X points”… Continue reading When To Avoid, And When To Attack, Super Bowl Game Props

Editor’s Note: This story was written by Unabated user Bob R., who has spent the last two years hitting Super Bowl props along with his partners in the two-week leadup to the game.  Before Super Bowl LVIII, I shared details about my experiences working with a friend to track prop lines across as many… Continue reading Lessons From Super Bowl Props Past

The lead up to the big game on Feb. 9 can seem like an eternity. However, there are a lot of key moments you won’t want to miss between now and then. It may appear to be a full two weeks between games, but much of the value can be found at key points… Continue reading When To Bet — Your Super Bowl Betting Timeline

Editor’s Note: This story was written by Unabated user Bob R. about his experience last year spending two weeks doing Super Bowl prop betting, working alongside his betting partners in different parts of the country.   It’s minutes before the Eagles and Chiefs are about to play in Super Bowl LVII and I’m buried… Continue reading 2,500 Miles Of Super Bowl Prop Betting

Through 18 weeks from early September to early January, you had your routine. Betting the NFL involved checking early lines on Mondays and Tuesdays. Then reacting to injury information on Thursdays and Fridays. Hunting player props on Fridays and Saturdays. Then finishing up with teasers on Sunday mornings. You dabbled with some halftimes and… Continue reading NFL Playoff Betting Can Require A Different Approach

 The popularity of betting the NFL is undeniable. But are you getting your money down in the best possible situation each week? I’m going to give you five types of bets you should look for each week to profit more when betting the NFL.  Hi I’m Jack from Unabated. I’ve been a professional… Continue reading Betting The NFL: Are You Placing The Right Wagers?

It’s five minutes until kickoff on Sunday. All your pregame action for the early slate is locked. Nothing to do but kick back and watch it all play out. For about a minute or two. Then it’s time to start planning your day-by-day NFL betting strategy. Not all bets are created equal, and neither… Continue reading Football Sunday To Sunday: A Day-By-Day NFL Betting Strategy Guide

When it comes to sports betting, the NFL is king. More people bet the NFL than any other sport in the U.S. Sides, totals, moneylines, parlays, props, same game parlays – there are many different ways to carve up the NFL. But there’s one way to bet that could turn your small investment into… Continue reading How To Win Millions In NFL Pick’em And Survivor Contests

The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching. Leveraging breaking news and injury updates is a secret weapon that sharp bettors have used for years. X (or, yes, we still call it Twitter) has revolutionized the dissemination of this news. The trick is to find the signal in all the noise. We’ve compiled this list… Continue reading Best NFL X/Twitter Accounts for News and Rumors

The NFL is the king of American sports and betting on the NFL is the king of the American sportsbook. But it’s also the biggest, baddest market out there.  There’s a ton of liquidity, which means high limits. Which attracts the sharpest bettors. Which means markets get more efficient, more quickly. And those big, sharp… Continue reading User’s Guide: Betting On The NFL Using Unabated

The Unabated NFL Simulator is a powerful tool designed to assist you in projecting the rest of the NFL season. At first glance, the NFL Simulator may seem a bit intimidating. We’ll show you how the NFL Simulator works and how you can get the most out of it. About the Unabated NFL Simulator … Continue reading How The Unabated NFL Simulator Works

For many bettors, an NFL week isn’t complete without a healthy dose of prop bets. Betting on player performances has replaced betting on their favorite teams for many American bettors. Betting NFL player props may seem straightforward. On the surface, it appears beatable. Indeed, there is a lot of profit potential in betting player… Continue reading The Biggest Mistake You’re Making When Betting NFL Player Props

Welcome to our NFL Simulator at Unabated. We believe this will be the best-in-class application for simulating out the rest of the NFL season. In this brief on-boarding video, I’m going to give you a quick tour of how you can utilize the simulator. Let’s get started… If you’ve never used the simulator before, your… Continue reading Quick Guide To The NFL Simulator

NFL Teaser bets have been a known sharp play for the last 20 years. However, as markets tend towards efficiency they have become increasingly harder to beat. In this article, we’ll recap why NFL teasers are beatable, how you can beat NFL teaser bets, some teaser pitfalls to avoid, and also some new ways to… Continue reading How To Build Profitable NFL Teaser Bets

We previously looked at NFL handicapping contests for 2024. Now we’ll update your NFL survivor contest strategy for 2024. Survivor contests take NFL season-long contests to a whole other level with their simplicity. Pick one game each week. If your teams wins, you move on. If your team loses, you are eliminated. Oh, and… Continue reading Your 2024 NFL Survivor Contest Strategy

Here it is. Win or go home. It’s time to put the finishing touch on your season with the NFL Week 18 pick’em contest edges.  (Some of our finishing touches need a little more attention than others. Like if, say, you were Top 3 in the Circa Millions.) The Pick’em Edge Tool is ready… Continue reading NFL Week 18 Pick’em Contest Edges

Here we are with four weeks left in the season and the division races are largely decided. Except for the NFC South where they’re apparently scrapping to see who can be the first 7-10 division winner in NFL history. Hopefully your pools aren’t so dire. If you’re still alive, let’s see where the NFL… Continue reading NFL Week 15 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

We’ve got a NFC Championship rematch/potential 2024 preview this weekend. Is it the Sunday night or Monday night game? Of course not. Who in the NFL offices could have known that the Eagles and Niners would be a compelling matchup in 2023? Well, regardless, it’s compelling in your NFL Week 13 pick’em pools. The… Continue reading NFL Week 13 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

Every so often in these pick’em contests you get a line that’s an absolute gift. The NFL Week 11 pick’em pools are one of those times, if you’re playing at RunYourPool. Injury news makes the Pick’em Edge Tool go ‘round sometimes. Let’s take a look at what we’re dealing with.   Pick’em Pools  … Continue reading NFL Week 11 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

Have we all recovered from that Thursday Night Football barnburner? The prime time football gods have not been smiling on us this year. Maybe the NFL Week 10 pick’em gods will be a little more forgiving. Let’s take the Pick’em Edge Tool off the shelf and see where the edges are this week.  … Continue reading NFL Week 10 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

If you got the Steelers -2.5 in your contest plays this week, you already banked some exceptional value that paid off last night. But for everyone else, it’s time to comb through the NFL Week 9 pick’em entries and see if we can squeeze out just a little more. As always, we’re using the… Continue reading NFL Week 9 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

We’ve talked a little bit about what to do if you’re way ahead in your pick’em contests (keep taking chalk) or way behind (go contrarian). What do you do if you’re mid-pack halfway through the season? Your NFL Week 8 pick’em plays need to find select spots where you can make up some ground.… Continue reading NFL Week 8 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

Simulators are a crucial resource for any serious prop bettor. The tools at Unabated sim player performance 10,000 times to generate a distribution of outcomes. You can use these to make sharper, more informed bets.  But as we’ve said repeatedly, simulations are only as good as their inputs. To get sharp edges, you need… Continue reading Introducing Run the Sims and BLITZ NFL Player Prop Projections Integration

Last week the Niners came in with a massive edge in a few different pools and then went out and lost outright to the Browns. (To say nothing of the Eagles tanking survivor entries up and down the dial with their loss to the Jets.) If we could have a semi-normal week for our… Continue reading NFL Week 7 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

It’s Week 6. The injury reports are starting to look like a CVS receipt. Taylor Swift hasn’t eaten anything but stale hot dogs and heat-lamp barbecue from Chiefs catering in a month. And your NFL Week 6 pick’em contests might be in a state of transition depending on how you’re moving up and down… Continue reading NFL Week 6 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

Is the Bears offense suddenly feisty? Sure, the Broncos and Commanders have two of the worst defenses in the NFL (outside of Chicago), but all of a sudden the Bears looked professional. If you had them in your NFL Week 5 pick’em pools, you’re comfortably up one. We weren’t so comfortable with the game,… Continue reading NFL Week 5 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

RIP to your survivor entries if you’re one of the many who landed on Jacksonville or Dallas last week. The Circa Survivor has about a third of its starting entrants remaining after that. The good news is that means lots of players can spend more time focusing on their NFL Week 4 pick’em pools.… Continue reading NFL Week 4 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

Last week, we benefited from some big line moves to help us find solid edges in our NFL Week 3 pick’em pools. And hey, maybe you’re already a leg up with a play on the Niners laying that big 10.5 against a Giants team playing back-to-back West Coast road games (and still suffering under… Continue reading NFL Week 3 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

Building or sourcing NFL projections accurate enough to beat props with is an ongoing quest for any bettor. Accurate projections are the Holy Grail, but to get them in fighting shape, it requires constant maintenance and careful attention to weekly shifts in playing time, target share, weather and more. John Paulsen, the projections guru… Continue reading Rookie QBs And Other NFL Projection Tips With John Paulsen

If you were a Jets believer last week, you got away with one. But we can’t imagine they’re going to be showing up as selections in a whole lot of NFL Week 2 pick’em pools.  Week 2 is Overreaction Week. But you aren’t going to make that mistake. You have to be measured. Logical.… Continue reading NFL Week 2 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

You can’t run the table in your contests if you don’t start get it from the jump. Which is why we’re looking at NFL Week 1 pick’em edges. Because we’d hate to see you fall behind this early already. (And if you’re one of the unlucky ones who took the Chiefs in survivor, first… Continue reading NFL Week 1 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

Survivor pools can be a great way to get a season-long sweat going, or a phenomenal way to lose all your equity in Week 1 (thanks, Indianapolis-Houston, for that Week 1 tie last year). We’re introducing our NFL Survivor Pool Optimizer to help you avoid the early flame-out and find your best path forward.… Continue reading Introducing The NFL Survivor Pool Optimizer

The days are shortening up, Halloween candy has been on the shelves for weeks, and there’s a non-zero chance you’re sleeping on your old NFL sheets between now and kickoff Sept. 7.  With less than two weeks to go before the NFL returns it is, in short, futures season. Unabated’s NFL Season Simulator is… Continue reading When Futures Go Wild

We’ve waited nearly six months to bet on NFL football again and now the preseason is upon us. Betting the NFL preseason is an exercise in contradiction. Over the next three weeks the NFL requires teams to play games that don’t count. Almost universally, the teams will tell you they’re not trying to win… Continue reading The Do’s & Don’ts Of Betting The NFL Preseason

In this episode, T is tying together the data gathering, bootstrapping, and weighting that we did in the first two episodes. He’ll be building a basic player prop model for the NFL that can be used to predict receptions, targets, and yardage. This example builds a project for Tight End receiving that takes into account… Continue reading How to Create NFL Player Projections For Player Props

We’re about 16 weeks away from the start of the NFL season. We have a draft class, we have a schedule and we have Week 1 lines. Crate dive into the ‘90s bin and fire up some Mark Morrison, because it’s the return of the mack NFL Season Simulator. For those of you who… Continue reading The Unabated NFL Season Simulator Returns For 2023

After 18 grueling weeks of the regular season with all its twists and turns and rises and falls, and three hard-fought rounds of the playoffs here we are with the … No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC. Oh. The system works. Nothing left to do but look at Super Bowl LVII through… Continue reading Super Bowl LVII By The Massey-Peabody Numbers

This is the last Sunday with more than one football game until the fall. Cherish it. But more importantly, profit from it. Let’s take a peek at the Conference Championships by the Massey-Peabody numbers. Planning out your action for the Conference Championships means playing amateur doctor when it comes to Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. But that… Continue reading The NFC and AFC Conference Championships by the Massey-Peabody Numbers

Wild Card Weekend is behind us. The Bills survived Skylar Thompson. The Bengals got a gift from the longest goal-line leap anyone’s ever attempted. The Chargers did Charger things. But we’re on to the next round, and it’s time to take a look at the AFC Divisional Round by the Massey-Peabody numbers. If you… Continue reading The AFC Divisional Round by Massey-Peabody Ratings

Is it the Divisional, or is it the NFC East round robin? Either way, we’re taking a look at the NFC Divisional Round by the Massey-Peabody numbers. The AFC contenders are rated the Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 8 teams in the league. The NFC is playing catch-up across the board with Nos. 4, 5… Continue reading The NFC Divisional Round By Massey-Peabody Ratings

After looking at this weekend’s schedule in the AFC, let’s take a look at what we’ve got on the other side of the bracket and see what the Massey-Peabody ratings have to say about the NFC Wild Card round.  Fortunately for the NFC hopefuls, no one is laboring under their third-string quarterback except for the… Continue reading The NFC Wild Card Round By Massey-Peabody Ratings

With 18 weeks of data in the books we can say conclusively, without any trace of uncertainty: The Indianapolis Colts will not be winning the Super Bowl. Other than that, the questions that remain are a bit more unsettled.  The final regular season Massey-Peabody ratings were released Tuesday, and here’s what else we know: the… Continue reading The AFC Wild Card Round By Massey-Peabody Ratings

Well here we are at the end. Another regular season draws to a close. Matt Ruhle, Frank Reich and Nathaniel Hackett couldn’t make it this far, but we hope you did. Hopefully you’re still in the hunt and ready for one more push with your Week 18 pick’em contest selections. Time to lock up a… Continue reading NFL Week 18 Pick’em Contest Edges

Just two more weeks to go for most pick’ems. We’re running out of regular season, and running out of time to make a dent in our contests. And in the case of Circa, it’s a two-entry weekend. So let’s capture some serious edge in our NFL Week 16 pick’em plays. There’s plenty to be found… Continue reading NFL Week 16 Pick’em Contest Edges

Another week out there in contestland, but be careful. We’ve even got Saturday games this week, so the window is tightening on getting in your Week 15 pick’em entries.   Fortunately, we’re here with the NFL Pick’em Edge Tool to help lighten the load. And the load this week is decidedly piled up on one squad. … Continue reading NFL Week 15 Pick’em Contest Edges

Still kind of hard to believe the regular season is down to its final four weeks, but here we are with our NFL Week 14 pick’em contests. And with most contests skipping Week 18, we’re really down to it. Feels like just yesterday we thought the Raiders weren’t a total mess, the Broncos would field… Continue reading NFL Week 14 Pick’em Contest Edges

We’re getting into the championship rounds for NFL pick’em contests. Just five more rounds until, hopefully, some of you will be posing for Instagram pictures with sportsbook managers.  Make sure you wear something nice.  Justin Fields’ return has made the Bears the top choice across the board. DraftKings is right there with them with… Continue reading NFL Week 13 Pick’em Contest Edges

Monday marked two months from the start of the playoffs. Those “to make the playoff” prices are getting long on some teams, and we’re getting down to it in NFL contest season. If you’re edge hunting this week, the Rams are a good place to start. It looks like Matt Stafford might be back in,… Continue reading NFL Week 11 Pick’em Contest Edges

This deep into the NFL pick’em contests season, you’ve had to survive plenty: injuries, late-breaking news and unlucky bounces. This week will test even the most fleet-fingered newshounds though, because it’s a game of “Who’s actually on the sidelines?” Josh Allen’s elbow is the most-watched joint in the world. Matt Stafford is in concussion protocol.… Continue reading NFL Week 10 Pick’em Contest Edges

Halloween is behind us. We’re halfway through the football schedule. If you’re still hovering near the top of the leaderboard in your NFL pick’em contest selections, let’s make sure you hang tight.  And if you’re not, we’ll talk about that, too.  First, let’s head over to the NFL Pick’em Edge Tool and see what… Continue reading NFL Week 9 Pick’em Contest Edges

If you’re still live in your pick’em contest pools this far in the season, you’re doing something right. But you can always do it righterer. (Not even going to spellcheck that. Pretty sure it’s fine.) It’s time to line up the plays for your NFL Week 8 pick’em pools. The lines have opened, the consensus… Continue reading NFL Week 8 Pick’Em Contest Edges

Continuing to build the basic concepts for a Football Prop Model. T is back to explain how to gather multiple points of data and then weight them across seasons. The formula for using SUMPRODUCT to weight the data may seem a bit complex, so we’ve pinned an example Google Sheet of it in the… Continue reading Weighting NFL Player Data Across Seasons

On Friday, we updated our look at NFL handicapping contests for 2022. Today we’re going to update our take on NFL survivor contests. Survivor contests take NFL season-long contests to a whole other level with their simplicity. Pick one game each week. If your teams wins, you move on. If your team loses, you are… Continue reading NFL Survivor Contests: Outwit Outlast Outplay Your Opponents

When it comes to bang for your buck, few wagers in a sportsbook give you the value that an NFL Pickem Contest can give you. Both public bettors as well as sharp bettors love handicapping contests. Sportsbooks love them as well. It’s a rare win/win/win for all involved. Taking a few minutes to educate… Continue reading NFL Pickem Contest Strategy – Winning A Season Long Battle

This is the first of a three-part series to help get you ready for the impending football seasons. Every football advantage player (AP) is different, and each has their own methods of attacking football lines. I will focus on my methods of preparing for the season, recognizing that other APs may be exploring totally different… Continue reading Offseason Rule Changes Can Mean Big Profit Opportunities

The 2022 NFL Schedule has officially been released and plenty of storylines have already sprouted from the provided matchups and dates. International games, homecomings, and strength of schedule are just a few of the many discussions taking place surrounding the release of season’s slate. Here are a few of the biggest takeaways from the schedule… Continue reading The 2022 NFL Schedule Provides Plenty Of Quirks And Narratives

Update: Feb 9th If you missed our big announcement, Peter Jennings has joined the Unabated team as an Advisor and member of our Board. He brings with him a ton of sports betting knowledge both in the form of DFS and well as traditional sports betting. He joined Rufus and Jack to talk about the… Continue reading Super Bowl 56 Props Betting Resource

Football fans are still trying to catch their breath after the divisional round of games. All four matchups ended in walk off fashion. It was a weekend of playoff football like we’ve never seen before. However, the markets don’t sleep. They don’t need to catch their breath. Before Travis Kelce’s game winning catch, lines were… Continue reading Finding Value On The NFL Conference Championship Games

The NFL season is in the home stretch. For many teams there is still a lot of uncertainty where they will finish. Can they win their division? Will they make the playoffs? Is it time to audition some second-string players in an effort to secure a better draft spot? For many bettors they made their… Continue reading It’s Never Too Late To Bet Season Long Props

Last week we established the allure of NFL handicapping contests for both the sportsbook as well as the bettor. NFL elimination contests take that to a whole other level with their simplicity. Pick one game each week. If your teams wins, you move on. If your team loses, you are eliminated. Oh, and you can’t… Continue reading NFL Elimination Contest Strategy – Surviving Isn’t Just Outlasting

When it comes to bang for your buck, few wagers in a sportsbook give you the value that an NFL Handicapping contest can give you. Both public bettors as well as sharp bettors love handicapping contests. Sportsbooks love them as well. It’s a rare win/win/win for all involved. Taking a few minutes to educate yourself… Continue reading NFL Handicapping Contest Strategy – Achieving Season Long Success

My favorite work for the past 15 years has been doing NFL preseason work.  Accurate season start projections for every team are crucial. I also get to run my full season NFL simulator and play against the market. This year I used the Unabated NFL Simulator. I am happy to share my work with… Continue reading Using The Unabated NFL Simulator To Find Bets

Simulating quarterback injuries and their effect is a key advantage of the Unabated NFL Simulator. With our ability to factor in QB Injury probability you can not only account for the randomness of injuries, but you can see the impact they would have on a team’s season. You can simulate to be prepared to… Continue reading Simulating Quarterback Injuries With The NFL Simulator