If you got the Steelers -2.5 in your contest plays this week, you already banked some exceptional value that paid off last night. But for everyone else, it’s time to comb through the NFL Week 9 pick’em entries and see if we can squeeze out just a little more.
As always, we’re using the Pick’em Edge Tool to find the top edges this week. If you missed out on Pittsburgh, you’ve still got a couple of solid plays in front of you.
At RunYourPool, the Chargers are a generous -2.5. With the Unabated Line out to -3.5, you’re getting a 17 percent edge in this spot. While it isn’t technically a contrarian pick, the fact that only 56 percent of players are on this one represents a chance to make up some ground or get some distance from the pack – 44 percent is still a lot of entries rolling with the Jets.
The Cowboys are also a decent contrarian spot here. You’re getting 3.5 in Philly, and only 36 percent are rolling with Dak and the boys.
The Commanders head up to Foxboro where they’re getting 3.5 at DraftKings against a consensus 2.5. That 14.9 percent edge is juicy. If you’re value hunting this week, this is as good as it gets. Beyond Washington, you have the Cowboys, Rams and Texans before the edges start to snug up, though Baltimore at a half point better than consensus represents the chance to get value on the top team in the Massey-Peabody ratings.
The SuperContest shares some selections with DraftKings. Washington is in the top spot, and the Vikings and Texans are both playable options here. The Chargers land on the 3, a half point better than the consensus line. Though you do have to be careful with games lined at 3 at this point in the year. If you’re behind, games that push can be a killer.
Value is even harder to come by in the Circa Millions. Cleveland -7.5 is outpacing the consensus -9 against the tank-driving Cardinals, but that’s only good for a 6.1 percent edge. The Texans and Vikes are options here, too, but Circa is so starved for value the Giants even make the cut as a 2-point road ‘dog.
Fading the Bears worked last week for survivor pool players, so why not go back to the well again this week?
Especially, according to the Survivor Optimizer, because the Saints both have the best win-now implied odds, but also because they’re of limited future value. Your other clear option here is to roll with Baltimore against Seattle, but the tool would rather hang onto the Ravens for Week 18 against the Steelers.
Two 4-1 weeks followed by a 3-2 two weeks ago wasn’t a bad run for Unabated in Circa Millions.
This past week wasn’t nearly as kind.
Captain Jack pointed out again that the 3 was bad news when we were trying to claw our way back up. The ties would be a huge drag on our points total.
It was important, too, to avoid Philly and Dallas. They were going to be popular plays laying less than a touchdown.
The Rams +6.5 and Steelers +2.5 emerged as contrarian picks. The Vikings PK and Niners -3.5 were neutral-to-value plays that everyone came around on fairly quickly.
That left the last pick an open question. There was some debate over Cleveland or Seattle, but ultimately the “honor” went to the Commanders at +6.5. The idea was that not only were the Rams and Commanders contrarian in their own right, but they were on the opposite side of two picks that were likely to be on a lot of entries.
Well the Rams slipped on a banana peel early and spent the rest of the game getting knocked around.
But Washington had an early lead on the Eagles. There was potential here! Until Ron Rivera decided he had enough of that.
It ended in a 1-4 week, with Unabated 8.5 points out of first and 5.5 points outside the money. It’s time to start throwing deep.
Want to talk pick’em or survivor strategy? Want a set of eyes on your entries? Come kick it in the Discord.