It’s Week 6. The injury reports are starting to look like a CVS receipt. Taylor Swift hasn’t eaten anything but stale hot dogs and heat-lamp barbecue from Chiefs catering in a month. And your NFL Week 6 pick’em contests might be in a state of transition depending on how you’re moving up and down the leaderboard.
It’s time to look at what’s happening in contestland with the help of the Pick’em Edge Tool.
There are a couple pools this week handing out more or less freebies. The Niners are only -4.5 on the contest line at RunYourPool but with Deshaun Watson officially ruled out, the Unabated Line has surged to -9.5 in that game.
It’s too big a move for most to pass up, with 89.2 percent of players landing on the Niners. And we’re not entirely sure what the other 10.8 percent are waiting for.
The next few choices of New England, Tampa Bay and Minnesota give you solid edges at a more contrarian position, with fewer than 40 percent of players landing on the two former teams.
Players at DraftKing’s pick’em also get a juicy gift on San Francisco with a -5.5 contest line against a consensus that’s swung out to 10. The Pats aren’t quite so spectacular an edge, but they’re pretty dang good at 12.7 percent with a contest line of +3.5 against the Raiders while the consensus is down to +3. Besides, how many teams lose by 34 three weeks in a row?
If you’re sensing a theme, you’re spot-on. The Niners are a mere touchdown favorite in the SuperContest, but that’s good for a 15.7 percent edge with that -10 consensus. The Vikings and Bills are also showing value here against the Bears and the Daniel Jones-less Giants, respectively.
Circa Millions players have to be feeling left out after seeing all those massive Niners edges in the other contests. San Francisco is only -7.5 on the contest line. The Buccaneers are in the top spot, with a +3.5 contest number against the Lions compared to the consensus of +3. Niners backers have to settle for the second-best edge on the board.
Three double-digit edges lead the way in college football pools as the line comes toward Temple, you can still snap up a +7.5 at RunYourPool. If you ever wondered how valuable movement was on a 40-point ‘dog, getting +42.5 on Massachusetts against Penn State is worth 10 percent compared to the consensus +41.5.
But before you go getting anything down on college football games or pools, take a spin around Unabated College Football and make sure you’re on top of the injury news.
The Commanders were the big flop for survivor pool players last week (sadly, for us here at Unabated, too). But ultimately, it wasn’t a big bloodletting.
Weighting toward Massey-Peabody and choosing a contrarian path in the the Survivor Optimizer lands you on the RAms this week, with a 78 percent chance of knocking off the Cardinals. Other options are dicier, aside from the Eagles.
But Philly figures to have far better future value than Los Angeles right now. Of course,that could always be a different story depending on which projection blends you prefer and which teams you still have available to you.
One other option with a projected 61 percent win chance is Minnesota against Chicago. Not much future value in the Vikes, but you’d have to do it without Justin Jefferson.
It was a hot start in the Circa Millions but the last two weeks have been ice cold. Still, we soldier on, er, unabated.
Minnesota +4, Tennessee -1.5, Buffalo -5 and Carolina +10 were all quickly agreed-upon Week 5 picks and all very much losers by the end of Sunday.
The only real contention was which team to use as a fifth pick. It came down to a vote that ultimately went to the lone winner of the week, the Raiders.
Team confidence appears to be at a low point right now.
Working on your own survivor and pool picks this weekend? Come hash ’em out in the Discord.