Last week the Niners came in with a massive edge in a few different pools and then went out and lost outright to the Browns. (To say nothing of the Eagles tanking survivor entries up and down the dial with their loss to the Jets.) If we could have a semi-normal week for our NFL Week 7 pick’em contests that would be great.
Let’s bust out the Pick’em Edge Tool and see what we’ve got.
It’s always nice to see the top edge on the board also be lightly picked. The Bears are home and their +3.5 contest line offers a nice edge against the +2.5 Unabated Line. With just 32.3 percent of RunYourPool players putting their faith in Chicago, the market is telling you to fade the crowd.
Cleveland also offers a solid little double-digit edge, but after their win against San Francisco (and the Colts turning to backup and mustache icon Gardner Minshew) the secret is out on the Browns. Players are picking Cleveland to the tune of 67.5 percent.
The number at DraftKings is even more generous to the Browns, with a contest line of -1.5 at Indianapolis. Detroit also clocks in here with a double-digit edge over the consensus number moving off the half to +3 vs. the Ravens.
The Saints turned up as a top edge in the SuperContest laying one slim point, but it wasn’t to be after last night’s Jags broke the 24-24 tie with just three minutes left on the clock. In addition to the sizable edges on Cleveland and Chicago, SuperContest sees a healthy edge on San Francisco on the road in the Twin Cities.
Finally, in the Circa Millions, the Giants grab the edge in their battle of lesser NFC East teams with Washington. The market hasn’t come off the contest line, but it’s backed off on the juice. That makes home ‘dog Big Blue the more attractive option compared to the other contests where Washington was -2.5.
Unless you were sitting on the Niners or Eagles last week, chances are you advanced in your survivor pools.
This week’s top choices are three teams you either already used or are trying to save for future weeks in Buffalo, Kansas City and San Francisco.
And then there’s Seattle, a -322 moneyline favorite on the Unabated Line and without much in the way of future value. The Survivor Optimizer likes Seattle this week.
It’s been a couple of bad weeks for the Unabated entries in Circa Millions. After a red-hot start, the Unabated entry has been tumbling backward in the standings.
To get back on track, Captain Jack Andrews suggested looking at some of the plays that looked like they were EV-neutral as a way of zigging when the rest of the crowd zagged.
Ultimately, the selections went to Tampa Bay +3.5, Washington +2.5, Cincinnati -2.5, the Jets +7 and Dallas -2.5.
Much like the city of Cleveland, Baker Mayfield let us down. But a 4-1 mark brought the entry to 17.5 points, 6.5 behind the leader.
Want to work through your pick ‘em and survivor entries before the Saturday deadline? Come chop it up in the Discord.