Every so often in these pick’em contests you get a line that’s an absolute gift. The NFL Week 11 pick’em pools are one of those times, if you’re playing at RunYourPool.
Injury news makes the Pick’em Edge Tool go ‘round sometimes. Let’s take a look at what we’re dealing with.
If you’re a Browns fan, hearing that Deshaun Watson is done for the year was a blow. But if you’re in a RunYourPool pick’em, it was music to your ears.
The Steelers are +4.5 in the contest but the Unabated Line is down to +1, netting you a downright goofy 27.2 percent edge. Of course, most players keyed on it. 71.5 percent are using Pittsburgh in their entries.
Less chunky a line, but much more lightly picked: the Bears at +10.5 are only on 35.6 percent of entries. And that’s against an Unabated Line of +7.5. It’s a 16.5 percent edge you can take right now that 65 percent of players aren’t taking.
DraftKings has three plays that keep you on the right side of key numbers. The Packers, Bills and Jags are all off the 3 and 7 and you can get 5-6 percent edges on those three plays. Buffalo might be scuffling, but are they scuffling enough they can’t handle the Jets laying less than a touchdown? The edge says that’s the play.
The scrappy Texans lead the way in the SuperContest as a 5-point favorite over the Cardinals. The consensus line is at -5.5, netting you a 4.6 percent edge on Houston. The 5 isn’t a major number, but the next edges don’t even get you so much as half a point off the consensus. It’s a tight week for SuperBook players.
Not that things are much better in the Circa Millions. Houston is the top play in that contest and the Chiefs are right behind them. Cleveland is a pick’em in the Millions, generating a small edge against the consensus where they’re still -1.5 against Pittsburgh.
If you took the Cowboys in survivor last week, congratulations on your completely sweat-free win.
This week the Survivor Optimizer, is recommending a play on the Lions, but that comes with the caveat that you’re not in a contest that’s breaking out the Thanksgiving slate into its own week. If you’re in a contest like Circa Survivor, you do need to plan around next week and Christmas week. If you’ve already burned the Cowboys, you better have Detroit or San Francisco in your back pocket.
If you’re working around those short weeks – or just want a slightly contrarian pick – the Jags and Texans both offer solid value in Week 11.
The current standings in the Circa Millions have the top team at 37 points and the top 25 with at least 34.
Unabated’s entry has 28.5, well off the pace. Unless we go 5-0 every week the rest of the way, we’re essentially out of the running for the top prize.
But there are still quarterly prizes to play for. That’s what we turned our attention to last week.
The Cowboys were a popular pick, and with good reason. The team quickly agreed on the Bucs, Texans and Commanders, too. The Raiders are no great shakes, and that had some looking to the Jets and the points.
Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed. The final entry: Houston +6.5, Pittsburgh -3, Tampa Bay -1, Dallas -16.5, Washington +6.5.
That made for a 5-0 week. Five and oh, you say? So-you’re-telling-me-there’s-a-chance dot gif.
Come hang out in the Discord and commiserate about your season-long chances dwindling, or brag to the rest of us how you’re running away with your pool.