NFL Week 1 Pick'em And Survivor Contest Edges

NFL Week 1 Pick’em And Survivor Contest Edges

Jason Scavone
Elimination Contests
Handicapping Contests
September 8, 2023

Dak Prescott passes the ball for the Cowboys


You can’t run the table in your contests if you don’t start get it from the jump. Which is why we’re looking at NFL Week 1 pick’em edges. Because we’d hate to see you fall behind this early already.

(And if you’re one of the unlucky ones who took the Chiefs in survivor, first off, our condolences. Second of all, hopefully you’re in a contest with re-entry.) 

Pick’em Pools

First off, if you’re looking to develop a pick’em pool strategy from the ground up before you dive into this week’s numbers, we can help with that.

But if you’re ready to begin, we’ll start our look at NFL Week 1 pick’em pools with the RunYourPool contests because we’ve added a new feature to the Pick’em Edge Tool this year – pick percentage.


Not only can members on the Essentials Tier and above see their edges on the contest line relative to the Unabated Line, but they can also see overall, how often people are taking those teams. 

For example, 48 percent of players saw the Lions available as a 6.5-point ‘dog after the line had tumbled to Detroit +4 and hopped on board. They had a big edge in that game, and they were rewarded.

Meanwhile, 75.8% of players at RunYourPool are hopping on board with Washington. The Commanders offer a nice edge with that contest line staying south of 7, but if you’re looking to zig when everyone else zags into fading the Cardinals, you could find better spots.

Cowboys Make Noise

At Circa, the Cowboys don’t have the hook on them as road favorites against the Giants. The Vikings are also a reasonable choice as a 5.5-point favorite. The consensus line there swung out to a pair of field goals. 

The DraftKings pool lines are more in line with what you’d find at RunYourPool. The Chargers and Titans offering solid edges with contest lines that are a half point off the 3 compared to the consensus. 

Like Circa, the SuperContest numbers line up for Dallas. The edges here are thinner than they are in other pools. That 2.9 percent edge on Philly is there in the other pools, but they offer far better options. If you’re playing at the Westgate, you have to settle for what a stingy board is giving you. 

And if after all this you’re ready for more NFL Week 1 pick’em contests: we’re doing a weekly contest on Splash Sports. It’s just a $25 entry and the top three places pay. We’re also adding in prizes for fourth and fifth place: a month and two weeks of Premium, respectively. Not only that, but one player each week will be drawn at random to go head to head with Captain Jack. Put together a better card than Jack, and we’ll send you an Unabated T-shirt.

CFB Week 2 Pick’em Pools

Let’s swing out and take a quick look at the college ranks, where Kent State and Utah are both sporting edges north of 9 percent. But Nebraska is sporting a solid edge against everyone’s new favorite CFB team, Colorado.

Also, keep an eye on Unabated College Football over the next 24 hours for any late-breaking news that could affect the lines. There’s always an edge for the fleet-fingered bettor with information.


Survivor Pools

The NFL Survivor Pool Optimizer is a brand-new addition to Unabated. It lets you blend the projection sources you prefer, and choose how aggressive you want to be on a week-to-week basis to help develop a path through 18 treacherous weeks.

Ultimately you have to be the one to pull the trigger on each team. If your strategy comes into conflict with a selection, you have the option to lock in a different team on any given week, and the tool will re-route around it and find the best available path using those picks.


Here we weighted our projection sets to use the Massey-Peabody Ratings to account for 40 percent of the numbers, and used a roughly even blend of the remaining projection sets in our menu.

Much like the 75 percent of players at RunYourPool, the tool likes the Commanders in Week 1. Washington offers a 66 percent win chance as determined by the betting markets. The Commanders also offer little in the way of future value. In other words, if you don’t take them against the likely woeful Cardinals, when else would you use them?

You get to, in effect, keep your best arrows in your quiver for later in the contest if you can ride Sam Howell past a tanking Arizona.

Want to talk contest strategy a little more? Kick around your picks? Head into the Discord and talk it over with fellow Unabated users.

Want to play in a free season-long survivor where the top prize is a year of Unabated Premium? Head over to RunYourPool to sign up.

Copyright 2024 © Unabated Sports, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

This site is strictly for educational and informational purposes only and does not involve any real-money betting. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER. This service is intended for adults aged 18 and over only.