Have we all recovered from that Thursday Night Football barnburner? The prime time football gods have not been smiling on us this year. Maybe the NFL Week 10 pick’em gods will be a little more forgiving.
Let’s take the Pick’em Edge Tool off the shelf and see where the edges are this week.
The Niners are the third choice on the board in Super Bowl futures at most books. And it’s the rare week where you can find some value on one of the top teams in the league at RunYourPool.
San Francisco is available at -2.5, good for an 11.5 percent edge and only appearing on 56.2 percent of player entries so far. Players saw the value on Detroit and gobbled up the Lions -1.5 at a 73.7 percent clip. Taking the Niners is a better edge, with less of the competition on board.
If you’re playing at DraftKings and snagged +4.5 on Carolina, you got the biggest edge available and locked up a winner. For the rest of us, the Jags and Lions are both solid value here. Unlike ar RunYourPool, Draftkings has Jacksonville +3.5. In both cases the line is sitting at 3, and when you can end up on the right side of a key number, you have to give that serious consideration.
At the SuperContest, the Bucs are the top choice on the board getting a point against the Titans. Tampa Bay is now the favorite on the consensus line, and who doesn’t want to get the favorite and get points?
The best edge at Circa Millions comes courtesy of the Saints, -2.5 against a -3 consensus line against the Josh Dobbs Vikings. You’ve also got equal edges on the Steelers and Commanders. But the real bargain of the week is only having to lay 16.5 on the Cowboys when the consensus has stretched out to 17.
Speaking of the Cowboys. They’re a -2000 moneyline favorite at Circa Sports. That’s nearly a 94 percent implied win probability once you remove the vig.
Not exactly a shock that the Survivor Optimizer, is rocking with Dallas this week, though if you’re in a pool that separates out Thanksgiving and Christmas into their own weeks, you may have cause to keep your powder dry with the Cowboys when they host the Commanders on the Thanksgiving three-game slate.
If that’s where you find yourself, the other top plays are all teams that you either could have used or are trying to save: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Baltimore. There’s even a solid chance you already used Seattle in Week 7 against Arizona.
So who’s left? From the next tier, the Bucs offer the highest remaining implied probability, and it’s unlikely you’re going to use Tampa Bay down the stretch.
What do you do when more bad weeks have piled up than good? You start to look for the Hail Mary.
Captain Jack Andrews was hoping to zig when the rest of the field zagged. And what could be more contrarian than taking the Cardinals?
Just like we drew it up.
The picks themselves were on the other side of the masses, but ultimately, an entry of Atlanta -4.5, Cardinals +7.5, Bucs +2.5, Colts -2.5, and Bills +1.5 only added two wins to the ledger.
Fortunately, there are quarterly prizes in the Circa Millions and a fresh quarter starts in Week 10. It’s time to lower some expectations to these smaller awards.
Where are you at in your season-long pick’em pools? Let us know in the Discord.