If you were a Jets believer last week, you got away with one. But we can’t imagine they’re going to be showing up as selections in a whole lot of NFL Week 2 pick’em pools.
Week 2 is Overreaction Week. But you aren’t going to make that mistake. You have to be measured. Logical. You have to let the market help guide you.
The one wrinkle this week? The market isn’t always cooperating with big, obvious plays. Let’s check in with the Pick’em Edge Tool.
In RunYourPool contests, you’d have done well to use the Vikings in your pick’em pool. That +7.5 contest line was a lifesaver for the 48.8 percent of people who saw the 2-point move in the market and acted accordingly.
You can have the Chiefs for less than a field goal in the contest, and the Titans getting more than a field goal. Betting markets jumped on both lines. The current numbers have drifted to -3.5 and +2.5, respectively. Looking at pick popularit, 71.4 percent of players went with Kansas City, but only 41.1 percent took the Titans.
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At DraftKings, the Vikings, Chiefs and Titans also top the board. The edges are mostly similar to what’s happening at RunYourPool, but the Panthers get the nod here in their tilt against the Saints.
It’s a different story in the SuperBook SuperContest, where two teams that are in the contest as 1-point ‘dogs and now stand as 1.5-point favorites have the highest edges. Atlanta and Houston are virtually identical plays, edge-wise.
The Chiefs, Dolphins and Titans are all missing from the SuperContest, though the Cardinals show an edge for those who are encouraged by the line movement and have a low opinion of Daniel Jones and company.
In the Circa Millions, the Fins are the best available option. Miami is only laying 2.5 to the Pats in New England after the betting markets made Miami a 3-point favorite. The Chiefs and Ravens are the other juicy plays plays here, that get you on the right side of the 3 in either instance.
In the college ranks, you have double-digit edges available at RunYourPool. Those are led by West Virginia where you’re getting 1.5 against a consensus line that’s swung out to -2.5. Or if you prefer using marquee programs, Ohio State had some favorable movement. So the Buckeyes will only have to win by four touchdowns to cover the consensus instead of three touchdowns and three field goals.
If you already took the Eagles in your survivor pool, you can kick back and savor the win. Banking victories on Thursday Night Football is a great first step toward a stress-free weekend.
For the rest of us there are some big moneyline favorites who will likely get attention. The Cowboys (-432 at Bookmaker), the Bills (-410), the Niners (-345) and the Giants (-210) are the chalkiest plays.
Using the Survivor Optimizer set to look for a little future value and take the chalk, it lands on the Bills. Get in there and fiddle under the hood to see where it lands with your inputs.
This year, Unabated has entries in the Circa Millions and Circa Survivor. Last week we were looking for Aaron Rodgers to break his leg in Week 2. It turns out we were optimistic.
We ended up debating our five picks for the Millions. Most got behind using the Rams, It was the way the market pointed, and it was useful as a bit of a contrarian pick.
A Rams outright win led us to a 4-1 week. Our picks were Dallas -3, Tennessee +3, Cleveland +2.5, Rams +5.5 and Buffalo -2. Our Survivor pick of Baltimore got us into Week 2.