After 18 grueling weeks of the regular season with all its twists and turns and rises and falls, and three hard-fought rounds of the playoffs here we are with the … No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC. Oh. The system works. Nothing left to do but look at Super Bowl LVII through the lens of the Massey-Peabody numbers.
What we’ve ended up with are two teams that match up fairly evenly across the board, both in their strengths and in their (few) weaknesses. This will not, it turns out, be as easy as figuring out the Eagles wildly overmatched the Giants. Well, if it was always easy money the money would be too easy.
The NFL’s big top dog-and-pony lands in State Farm Stadium in Arizona on Feb. 12. You’ve got until then to make sense of it. If you’re using Massey-Peabody to do it for the first time, the unit grades are based on a scale of 1-100 and grade out each unit relative to league average. We have no home field advantage to worry about, so we can compare pure ratings.
Have you heard yet that we have two Kelces playing in this one? There’s your first deep-dive nugget. Here’s a few more for Super Bowl LVII.
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
Sharp sportsbook line: Philadelphia -1 (-107)
Sharp sportsbook total: 50.5 (Over -107)
(As of 11:30 a.m., Feb. 1)
|Scoring Efficiency (Offense)
|Play Success (Offense)
|Scoring Efficiency (Defense)
|Play Success (Defense)
|Kansas City Chiefs
After Week 15 there was barely daylight between these two teams, with the Chiefs rated at 6.99 and Philadelphia at 6.39. Then Jalen Hurts got injured and opened up a huge gap between the two. But, the Eagles have tightened the race to less than a point coming into the Super Bowl thanks to a convincing win over a depleted Niners team, and the Chiefs’ injury-plagued regression.
Kansas City has regularly been among the highest rated teams in the league, sporting a rating north of 6 by Week 3 – meaning they’d be favored by six points over a league-average team on a neutral field.
The Eagles, meanwhile, started the season in negative territory and have climbed steadily since. They only eclipsed 6 for good once Hurts returned at the end of the season, but they have been trending upward through their two playoff wins.
The Massey-Peabody line for this game would be Chiefs -0.74 and that’s reflective of what shows up in the unit grades for each team.
Kansas City is modestly graded higher for its rushing and passing offense, and play success on offense. It has a slightly better rushing defense. The Eagles nip the Chiefs on passing defense, scoring efficiency on offense, and own notable edges in scoring efficiency and play success on defense.
Two teams with potent offenses. Two teams who are neither vulnerable to the pass nor stout against the run. Two teams who have been circling around a pick’em since the betting opened.
Pinnacle opened the game at Eagles -1, got all the way out to Eagles -2.5 and settled back at -1. Circa, notably, opened the game at Chiefs -2.5. Philly bettors gobbled that up and within 10 minutes. they were at Eagles -2. Since then, the number has come down to Philadelphia -1.5.
The ratings say the wrong team is currently favored. The public money hasn’t really had its say yet, but how about you? Did you gobble the Chiefs as a ‘dog? Do you think the number flips to favor Kansas City? Are you playing Super Bowl LVII with the Massey-Peabody numbers? Let us know on Discord.