If you missed our big announcement, Peter Jennings has joined the Unabated team as an Advisor and member of our Board. He brings with him a ton of sports betting knowledge both in the form of DFS and well as traditional sports betting. He joined Rufus and Jack to talk about the Super Bowl and how he’s approaching it.
Super Bowl Props Market Round Up
For years the Super Bowl prop prices originated in Las Vegas. The big event each year was the unveiling of the prop board at the Las Vegas Hilton at 7pm on the Thursday prior to the week leading up to the game. Very few sportsbooks dared to put out many prices before seeing what Jay Kornegay and his crew had come up with. With the legalized sports betting boom, the market has become far more decentralized. Online sportsbook giants such as DraftKings and FanDuel raced to post Super Bowl props as soon as the Conference Championship games ended. The Las Vegas Hilton became the Westgate and now brands their sportsbook as The Superbook. They still release on that same Thursday at 7pm. While many sportsbooks jump ahead and release their props far sooner, the crew at The Superbook is still respected for their prop pricing.
Another staple of the Super Bowl prop scene in Las Vegas is the prop packet. While online bettors scroll and scroll through the various offerings, retail bettors often rely on the printed prop packet listing all the available bets. The prop packets are printed when the lines open. Often lines have moved since then, but browsing the prop packets is a good way to compare prices between sportsbooks.
Here’s a collection of current prop packets in Las Vegas for Super Bowl 56:
At this point, most of the game and player props that will be posted for the game have been posted. In the second week of prop season the novelty and cross-sport props begin to fill in. It will be worth your time to take a daily look at the props offered at each sportsbook out you have between now and the game. Attacking the novelty and cross-sport props is not the same as attacking the game props and player performance props. If you want to learn more about the different ways to approach Super Bowl props, watch Jack’s livestream:
Using The Unabated Player Prop Simulator
Super Bowl props are a great way to see the power of our Player Prop Simulator. Prices and projections for players can be all over the map and often value is created by mispriced lines. You can use our tool to help identify the best possible line for a player prop.
You enter your projection for a player and it will simulate that projected performance 10,000 times. If you want an indication of how useful this tool can be, look at the current market for Joe Mixon Rushing Yards.
Joe Mixon (CIN)
over 63.5 -114
over 62.5 -115
over 65.5 +100
over 62.5 -110
over 64.5 -110
under 63.5 -114
under 62.5 -115
under 65.5 -131
under 62.5 -120
under 64.5 -120
What you, the bettor, need to bring to the table is a projection for Joe Mixon’s rushing yards. You can do this by following a top-down methodology as explained by Rufus in his series of Prop Process livestreams. Or if you don’t think you have the ability to do all that work for this game, you can use various projections posted around the internet.
A Quick Note About Mean vs. Median
Be careful not to use sportsbook lines as your projection. Sportsbooks post the median for you to bet into. They don’t care how far over or under the player goes in the prop, they just want to choose the point where half the results would go over and half the results would under. For player props, they are often positively skewed. So the median is typically less than the mean (average). You enter the mean into the Unabated Player Prop Simulator and it converts that to a median by creating a distribution using the simulation.
This is why you often have people touting overs for player projections and seemingly having numbers to back them up. If you take the mean and compare it to a sportsbook line, it’ll point to betting the over. However, you are comparing mean to median there. You need to compare median to median. That’s why we feel this tool is so valuable.
Joe Mixon Rushing Projection
After doing your research, you come up with the following projection:
The simulator gives you a proper price for each yardage prop. Going back to our list of available props. We see there are a few prices that offer very slight edges based on our projection. However there is one that is definitely better than the rest.
Caesars is offering over 62.5 -110 and the prop simulator prices this at -124. At -124 it would be a 55.4% implied probability. Getting a 55.4% probability on a -110 line creates a 5.76% edge for us. Of course, that’s all dependent on our projection on Mixon. However, we’ve used the Player Prop Simulator successfully to find the best price in a variety of choices.
Using The Alt Lines Calculator To Solve A Prop
A popular prop offered on the game is “Will the Final Score Be Decided by Exactly 3 Points?” You’ll find this prop offered nearly everywhere. You can use the Unabated Alternate Lines Calculator to find a solution to this proposition. It takes a few iterative steps, but it is very much just common sense. You’re looking for the probability that the Rams will win by exactly 3 and the probability that the Bengals will win by exactly 3, and then add them together.
Let’s start with the probability for the favored Rams. In the Alternate Lines Calculator, we’ll use a vig-free price of LAR -4.5 +100 as our primary line. For precision, we’ll also enter the current total on the game, which sits firmly at 48.5. To find out the probability of Rams by 3, we need to find the probability of Rams by 2.5 and subtract the probability of Rams by 3.5.
Rams -2.5 = -162
Rams -3.5 = -113
Next, we convert each of them to their implied probability.
-162 = 61.83%
-113 = 53.05%
This gives us an 8.78% probability that the Rams will win by exactly 3. We repeat the exercise for the Bengals. The primary line spread becomes 4.5 and we solve for -2.5 and -3.5 again.
Bengals -2.5 = +233 or 30.03%
Bengals -3.5 = +327 or 23.42%
We add this 6.61% to the Rams 8.78% to get a 15.39% probability of the game being decided by exactly 3 points. The fair odds for this prop would be:
Yes: +550 No: -550
Now you have the steps necessary to solve for Exactly 6 or 7 points. Both of which are props also widely available.
Check back here often – We’ll continue to update this post as prop season progresses!
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