Editor’s Note: This story was written by Unabated user Bob R., who has spent the last two years hitting Super Bowl props along with his partners in the two-week leadup to the game.
We learned a few things along the way. While I’m nowhere near the most successful prop bettor out there I think I’ve learned enough to have a few useful ideas to share. Maybe some of the mistakes I made or challenges I’ve observed might help some folks make the most of their Super Bowl props.
Maximize Your Outs, but …
A lot of the Super Bowl props betting advice is the same as general sports betting advice. The more lines you have access to the better chance you have to make a profit. However, you’ll also have to consider how many outs you can reasonably follow.
You can find player props on the Unabated Odds Screen and other places, but there’s no public source I know of that will tell you what odds different books are offering for something like “whether or not the game will be tied again after 0-0” or “will either team have three unanswered scores.”
Consider how many books you can reasonably track the things you’ll want to bet. Whether you’re betting in person or with other betting partners, you’ll want to make sure you have the cash or bank account funds readily available ahead of time to fund all the outs you’ll want to use.
Choose Your Location Wisely
If you’re able to travel, you may want to position yourself near a cluster of different books where you can bet in person. You could possibly partner with a friend to cover several books that you know offer a good variety of different lines for props.
Beware of states where some props may not be allowed, particularly places that don’t allow bets on “negative outcomes.” Books in those locations may be missing a lot of things bettors will see in other states.
Know Your Physical Outs
Whether you choose to travel overnight or just drive to nearby sportsbooks, the more familiar you are with places you’ll bet ahead of time the better off you’ll be. Which casino entrance is closest to the sportsbook? Is there road construction on your route? Which books are close enough to walk from one to another? These are all important things to know.
The hours when a book is staffed matter a lot. Especially in locations where kiosks may only accept small wagers. So does how different places handle cashing tickets when the book is closed. It may save you time after the game.
A book’s policy on making multiple bets after they move (or don’t move) their lines can be important, too.
If you don’t already have one, then you’ll also want a system for tracking all the bets you’ve made and knowing which tickets to cash after the game. It may seem elementary to many serious bettors, but it wasn’t something I thought of right away and the time I initially spent building these systems took away from time spent looking for bets or actually betting on things.
Even if you are a regular in-person bettor, the Super Bowl may be a little different than what you normally see. If you’re betting close to game time, then beware there may be substantial lines at the windows or for the kiosks. It’s hard to know how long those will be if you haven’t been to that particular casino before. No matter what it’s likely to be busier at the sportsbook than you’ll see pretty much any other time of the year.
Las Vegas Can Be Good for Super Bowl Props, but …
These days, betting offshore or with regulated books in different states offer better betting opportunities, but Las Vegas still has a lot of value for bettors during Super Bowl time. There’s a pretty good variety of different opinions at books who don’t offer most of these props any other time of the year, and a variety of different prices is a big benefit for the sharp bettor.
But, beware that betting in Las Vegas isn’t what many of us are used to back home. Many Nevada casinos require you to create an account in person at the sportsbook, a process that can take up to half an hour.
And that doesn’t count the time you spend getting to and from casinos, and assuming the book hasn’t closed early, the app’s process to determine your location works, or the one person who can activate accounts isn’t on break.
(I ran into all of those problems in Las Vegas a year ago.)
Things in Las Vegas have gotten a little more player-friendly in recent years, as a few sportsbooks now allow you to sign up online. But even those that do require you to show up in person to activate the account (including Caesars and BetMGM, even if you’re already active on those apps in other states).
Your best bet in Nevada is to sign up ahead of time for any book you may want to bet. Some places will now let you deposit and withdraw through the app after you’ve completed the in-person activation, though a handful of others still require you to deposit in person.
Some places, notably South Point, take substantially higher limits in person. You may not even want to bet through the app at all, but having the app allows you to scout prices before you drive to the casino.
South Point is also a good reminder to be aware of satellite locations for different properties. South Point provides lines for the Rampart sportsbook. Circa has several books around town, including some at properties owned by different companies. Station and Boyd have places all around town.
Picky Search Bars and Shifting Menus
Tracking prices isn’t always easy. As I said, there isn’t an odds screen for a lot of what you might bet.
The menus at some books can get huge. If you’ve checked prices at one of them, note where on the menu you found it. That can make life easier on yourself when you need to check in again.
A few sites offer search features. Some of them (I’m looking at you, Caesars) can be quirky, though. If you don’t phrase your search with the precise wording they used to describe the bet, they may not surface in your search.
Also beware that many books move props around in the early days before they finally settle their menus. DraftKings and Fanduel seem to post Super Bowl props quickly, then move them to different locations later on.
Sometimes, they’ll have more than one may to navigate to the same prop, too. They may even list the same prop twice with slightly different wording. They’ll also sometimes take a prop completely off the board.
Know What You’re Actually Betting
A small change in wording of a prop can make a big difference. One of my favorite examples are different bets on kicks to hit an upright. Over the years I’ve seen “Any Kick to Hit Uprights,” “Any FG/XP To Hit An Upright or The Crossbar,” “Missed Field Goal Hits Uprights/Crossbar,” “Missed Field Goal or Extra Point Hits Uprights,” and “Will A Missed Kick Hit An Upright.”
If you can price each of those scenarios, then that’s great. If the books can’t even agree on exactly what a standard bet is, then several of them are probably guessing at their prices here, but just know that not all “doinks” are the same when it comes to betting on a kick to hit the upright.
Sacks are another area where I had a bit of a learning curve. Know what rules different places use for what counts as a sack before you bet.
Some places are very clear, listing over/under 0.25, 0.5, or 0.75 sacks, but other books just offer yes/no bets. In those cases, find out how they count a half a sack.
Track Your Positions
It isn’t hard to end up with hundreds of prop bets over two weeks. But even if you only have a couple dozen, it’s easy to forget about something you bet early on. If you’re working with others, then it’s important that they know what your shared positions are. Have somewhere that you and your partners can look to quickly see what bets you’ve made.
Beware of Super Bowl Props Correlation
It’s very possible you’ll end up with a lot of heavily correlated bets, so if you’re risking a significant percentage of your bankroll, then keep that in mind when considering bet sizing. I wish I could offer a magic formula or even a rule of thumb for this, but I don’t have one.
However, one benefit of taking the time to clearly document the bets you’ve made is it at least gives you a fighting chance of noticing you may have a cluster of player or game props that all assume the same game script plays out.
Those four wide receiver Unders and their quarterback passing yard Under may look great. So does betting Under the number of players to catch a pass, but if that team finds itself needing to pass the ball more than they normally do, then you might be taking on more risk than you realized.
Line up the Details Before You Start
How are you going to track lines for thousands of possible bets across potentially dozens of outs? Will you partner with other people to help you do that and/or to help you make bets? How will you track the bets you’ve made? How will you stay in touch with your partners? When will you and those partners be available for checking lines for betting or for talking about possible bets?
The more of those questions you can answer before you start, the better chance you’ll have to be successful.
Managing money matters. How much you will need and where should it be? In cash, in a bank account, in Paypal, with a betting partner?
If you don’t already have a lot of cash on hand, figure that out, too. Knowing your bank’s policies on cash withdrawals and deposits is worth looking into if you’ll need more than a couple thousand dollars at a time to bet in person.
Know When to Take a Break
The Super Bowl props process doesn’t end until the game kicks off. Even then there will probably still be some in-game props worth betting. After the game you’ll still have to grade bets and maybe cash tickets in person.
You could watch lines 24 hours a day from the time the first props are posted until the end of the game and you still wouldn’t be able to stay on top of everything. Give yourself some time to rest.
Most days I’ll reach a point where I’m making errors or starting to work slowly. At that point, I’ll save time in the long run by letting myself sleep. When I haven’t done that, I haven’t accomplished much.
I haven’t always followed this advice in the past. But am hopeful I may be willing to listen when my body is telling me it’s time to shut down for the night.
Seek Out as Much as Possible
I’m sure some of you are thinking all those things you said are nice, but what should I actually bet on?
Regular Unabated bettors know there aren’t easy answers. But there are plenty of reputable sources share good ideas for bets this time of year.
The annual Unabated Super Stream is the one time of the year when you’ll even hear Captain Jack ask guests to provide picks, and that’s not the only good source of ideas for things to bet on.
There’s a pretty good chance your favorite podcast or other media outlets will throw in a couple suggested Super Bowl props. If those come from someone you know to be a winning bettor, then you might supplement your portfolio of bets with some of these suggestions.
Beyond just listening to bettors giving out picks, there’s also an archive of past content from Unabated – like Rufus Peabody’s overall strategies for prop betting – and from other well-known bettors talking about betting strategies. If you look back at articles, videos, and podcasts, then there’s a lot to learn. Or ask Rufus yourself in Discord during the Jan. 31 Ask-Me-Anything session.
If you’re new to Super Bowl prop betting or just trying to improve your process, read up on available material.
This site is strictly for educational and informational purposes only and does not involve any real-money betting. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER. This service is intended for adults aged 18 and over only.
