This is the last Sunday with more than one football game until the fall. Cherish it. But more importantly, profit from it. Let’s take a peek at the Conference Championships by the Massey-Peabody numbers.
Planning out your action for the Conference Championships means playing amateur doctor when it comes to Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. But that does mean you may be able to find some opportunities on future positions, whether that means looking at Super Bowl exactas or, as FantasyPros’ director of content Matt Freedman worked through on the Unabated Podcast, finding value on KC Super Bowl futures versus rolling over back-to-back moneyline parlays.
As with previous entries, we’re using a standard 1.7 home field advantage when calculating projected lines. Unit grades are on a hundred-point scale that assesses how each aspect of a team’s offense or defense stacks up against the league average.
It’s one last ride before the big game, and we’ve got four worthy contenders.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
| Team | Rating | Rank | Rushing Offense | Passing Offense | Scoring Efficiency (Offense) | Play Success (Offense) | Rushing Defense | Passing Defense | Scoring Efficiency (Defense) | Play Success (Defense) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5.91 | 6 | 85 | 96 | 84 | 84 | 95 | 33 | 98 | 80 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.58 | 4 | 71 | 91 | 92 | 92 | 32 | 98 | 52 | 77 |
Sharp sportsbook line: Philadelphia -2.5 (-114)
Sharp sportsbook total: 45.5 (Over -106)
(As of 11 a.m., Jan. 29)
Once again, the Niners wrapped up a Divisional Round one-score win against the Cowboys on a bizarre final play. Hopefully we’ll get a prop market for “Will Mike McCarthy call a hopeless play with almost no chance of tying the game” should San Francisco and Dallas meet again.
The Eagles got here by dismantling an inferior Giants squad. It was a thorough beating from start to finish. Which should have been expected. Philadelphia took care of business, but now the assignment gets harder.
San Francisco comes in graded higher in rushing offense, passing offense, and rushing defense. Philly’s pass defense is far superior, and rookie QB Brock Purdy isn’t highly regarded by the ratings.
The Massey-Peabody line for this game would be Eagles -2.37, more or less in line with the market. There hasn’t been much movement in this number. Pinnacle opened Philly -2 but has been stable at -2.5 since Monday morning. Some of the retail shops have touched Eagles -3, but quickly retreated.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
| Team | Rating | Rank | Rushing Offense | Passing Offense | Scoring Efficiency (Offense) | Play Success (Offense) | Rushing Defense | Passing Defense | Scoring Efficiency (Defense) | Play Success (Defense) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7.49 | 3 | 25 | 79 | 97 | 91 | 86 | 46 | 86 | 94 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8.5 | 1 | 83 | 99 | 89 | 99 | 41 | 94 | 26 | 50 |
Sharp sportsbook line: Kansas City -2 (-109)
Sharp sportsbook total: 48 (Over +100)
(As of 11 a.m., Jan. 29)
Cincinnati’s offensive line worries didn’t show out against Buffalo as the Bengals jumped out to a 14-point lead and never looked back.
Kansas City had a little looking back to do. We got a Chad Henne sighting, which means things took a turn. Specifically, Mahomes’ ankle.
The ratings credit a healthy Mahomes as being worth 2.71 to KC’s bottom line, while Henne is worth -5.23. Mahomes has insisted since the postgame interview he’ll be ready to go on Sunday. He did finish out the game, going 22-for-30 for 195 yards against the Jaguars, but he was clearly diminished.
Which has led to a bit of chaos in the market. The Massey-Peabody line here would be Chiefs -2.71 if Mahomes were fully healthy. Pinnacle opened KC -1, flipped to Cincinnati -1 Monday afternoon, and drifted out to Bengals -2.5 Tuesday for less than a minute. Soon, though, they were back to Cincinnati -2 and returned to -1. The whole swing lasted fewer than 10 minutes.
The retail books spent even longer at 2.5. As of Wednesday afternoon, though, we’re once again painted Bengals -1.
But on a unit-by-unit basis, the Chiefs have the edge in rushing offense, passing offense and passing defense. Is the market overreacting to the injury and ignoring the rest of the team? Does the injury completely discount any other season-long ratings? If you have an answer to those questions, you’re likely to find value on one side or the other.
Where do you come down on the conference championships? Let us know on Discord.
As for the potential matchups, here’s what the current ratings would come up with for lines:
- CIN vs. PHI: CIN -1
- CIN vs. SF: CIN -1.5
- KC vs. PHI: KC -2 (assuming a healthy Mahomes)
- KC vs. SF: KC -2.5
It’s tight out there this year.
