NFL Week 8 Pick’Em Contest Edges
October 28, 2022
If you’re still live in your pick’em contest pools this far in the season, you’re doing something right. But you can always do it righterer. (Not even going to spellcheck that. Pretty sure it’s fine.) It’s time to line up the plays for your NFL Week 8 pick’em pools.
The lines have opened, the consensus lines have moved, and our NFL Pick’em Edge Tool is on the case to see where you can pile up value between the two.
The Week 8 Contenders
It starts with Miami, which is sporting the biggest edge of the week for DraftKings contest players. The Fins at -2.5 are a full point off of the -3.5 consensus line (a vig-free average of major books), netting players an 18.4 percent edge.
The Broncos at the London Jaguars of Jacksonville are also a point off the consensus, good for a 16 percent edge. Good news if you’re leaning toward airplane aisle high-steppin’ Russell Wilson.
The view at the SuperBook SuperContest doesn’t offer us quite the extremes as DK, with Indianapolis generating the best value of the week (so far) at -2.5, half a point off the consensus. That gets us a 7.8 percent edge.
(Incidentally, if you upgrade to Premium, you’ll get these numbers compared to the Unabated line, which is a curated line of the sharpest market-making books. Indianapolis -2.5 is still a solid play against our number, but the edge narrows.)
Meanwhile, Circa leads with another half-point discrepancy from the consensus. Cleveland at +3.5 vs. the aggregate +3 lands us a 5.2 percent edge. With the Colts at -3 at Circa, what would have been a great edge in the SuperContest evaporates. Key numbers are key for a reason.
Buffalo Stands Above
The Bills opened at a sizable 10.5 over the Packers. At DK, where they have Buffalo at the opening number, we still find a 2 percent edge. But the Bills -11.5 is a negative 2 percent play at Circa and SuperBook. Buffalo is pretty good at football, and Green Bay sure looks like it may not be. Hope you didn’t settle for 12-1 on their Super Bowl futures in the preseason.