A futures bet is a wager placed on an event or outcome that will be decided in the future. This could be anything from who will win the Super Bowl, to which team will clinch a spot in the NBA Playoffs, to who will take home the gold in the next Olympic Games. These bets are typically available for most of the season, offering differing odds as the season progresses based on team or player performances, injuries, and other impactful factors. Understanding the various types of futures bets, hedge mechanics, and inherent house edge associated with long-term future bets is essential to develop sustainable strategies and bet responsibly.
Future bets are offered across both individual sports like golf, NASCAR, and tennis, as well as team sports like football and soccer. For the sake of this article, we’re going to focus on some examples from the NBA market. The goal of this piece is to help you learn what a future is and the positives and negatives associated with future bets. Let’s dive in.
Some NBA Futures Bets Examples
There are future bets on both the player and team side which span the course of the entire regular season, the entire playoffs, or over the course of a playoff series. As the season carries on, these odds fluctuate based on performance, injuries, transactions, and odds-maker sentiment to ensure the market remains efficient.
For instance, the Denver Nuggets are currently the favorite to win the 2023-24 NBA title and repeat as champions. However, a season-ending injury to Nikola Jokic would plummet these odds. Here are some other examples of NBA future bet types:
Regular Season Futures
- Win Totals
- Most Valuable Player
- Rookie of the Year
- Most Improved Player
- Sixth Man of the Year
- Coach of the Year
Playoff Futures
- NBA Champion
- Conference Champion
- Series Winner (Best of 7)
- Finals MVP
The allure of futures are their generally longer odds and larger payouts. This is due to the lower implied probability given all the possible outcomes. If the team or player wins the event associated with the bet placed, the bettor wins the wager and is paid out accordingly.
Why Make Futures Bets?
Futures offer attractive odds to casual bettors who may have a strong prediction that isn’t widely shared or if they want to back an underdog.. One can wager a smaller amount for a significantly larger payout in return. It also allows fans to stay engaged in the results of a player or team throughout the season. Futures bets generally have a negative expected value. Sportsbooks have significant theoretical hold percentages on future bets, upward of 15-25%. This is a way for oddsmakers to protect themselves against the uncertainty of multi-way markets. Sportsbooks structure these markets to ensure they realize their bottom line and protect themselves, even if a longshot hits.
However, there are some ways to increase your likelihood of success when playing futures. Let’s explore a few of those strategies.
Line Shopping
One of the sharpest things that any bettor can do to increase their chances is to line shop. This is the process of browsing your options across every available sportsbook to find the best return for a given future. Some states have few operators to choose from while others have over 20. Taking advantage of the best prices and odds is key to trimming the house edge. You don’t need to have an account to view odds at most sportsbooks. It is worth your time to check the odds at every available operator you can access.
For example, let’s take a look at a theoretical NBA Championship futures market. Here are some past odds to win the Eastern Conference at 3 major US sportsbooks:
As you can see, the odds vary at these three books. The best price depends on which team you’re looking to bet. At these three books, the hold on this market ranges from 13.5% to 15%. However, by taking the best number, you cut the Synthetic Hold to 9.1%, and that’s just three books. Synthetic Hold is a concept from Ed Miller & Matthew Davidow’s excellent book, The Logic of Sports Betting.
Unabated currently offers an NFL Futures odds screen when you sign up for Unabated Premium. This allows you to compare to odds across sportsbooks for odds to win the Super Bowl, Win Totals, odds to make the playoffs, and much more.
High-Upside Payouts
Futures present an entertaining option for a fan of their hometown team or favorite player to enjoy following the ups and downs of a season with some skin in the game. For highly engaged sports fans, the futures market can allow fans to elevate their interest and enjoyment throughout the season with potential financial reward.
For example, as a die-hard fan of a team, one can find opportunities to take advantage of inefficient odds by following every beat reporter closely and staying on top of the news cycle at a high-level. This could mean anything from reacting to a high-profile trade or significant injury, both of which could dramatically shift the landscape of a market. Markets are incredibly fluid and fans who are engaged with high-signal content and news could find opportunities reacting before the market.
Betting A Narrative
You can use futures to bet according to how you think a narrative plays out. Perhaps a star player is due for a breakout year. Or perhaps an injury on another team could lead to a dark horse emerging in a division. There is tremendous upside to using futures as a potential parlay-type payout to stars aligning.
Risks Associated With Futures Bets
Tying Up Funds
Sportsbooks love futures. They possess a significant edge over the bettors and they allow the book to hold bettors’ money for a while. However, that’s also a downside for books because bettors aren’t able to access their capital for other wagers during that time. Bettors need to realize that without those funds in their liquid bankroll, they may need to adjust their bet sizing downward.
Remaining liquid enough to take advantage of shorter term events and inefficiencies in the market is key to being successful. Avoid overextending your bankroll and ensure you’ve educated yourself to understand the risks to your bankroll before diving into a futures bet.
Theoretical Hold Percentage
As mentioned earlier, the hold percentage on futures is larger than normal wagers because the book must protect against uncertainty. Wagering on futures can be a way to extend a sweat over a longer period of time, but be careful not to wager blindly on future. Practice discipline and use all tools are your disposable to understand the markets and gain your edge. Among those available tools is the Unabated Hold Calculator, which will help you to determine what theoretical hold you’re betting into. As well as help you determine how much you’ve trimmed that edge by line shopping. You can also use the Unabated Futures Odds Screen for the NFL, and soon for other sports as well.
Key Takeaways
- Futures offer season-long value for your betting dollar.
- Know what you’re up against in the market.
- Always line shop to get the lowest Synthetic Hold.
- Be cognizant of tying up your bankroll.
- Use Unabated’s tools to help you make more intelligent wagers.
