Introducing the NFL Teaser Shopper

Week 13 is shaping up to be a potentially profitable one for NFL teaser bettors. There are plenty of games on the board at a touchdown or under. Which makes it a great time to debut our Teaser Shopper. 

First, the basics: What is a teaser? They’re bets using multiple teams which all have their lines adjusted by a predetermined amount. A 6-point teaser turns a team laying a touchdown into a 1-point favorite, and a team getting 2 into an 8-point dog. What you’re really doing is creating a parlay of alternate totals. Teasers are, effectively, just shorthand for that, saving you the trouble of hunting each individual alt on the betting menu. 

(If you’re a horseplayer, you might be familiar with boxes, which are a way of calling out multiple combinations of an exacta, trifecta or superfecta in an easy shorthand. If you’re not a horseplayer, we can already feel you skipping ahead to the next paragraph.)

We’ve told you about the value of Wong teasers – an NFL teaser that takes games through the key numbers of 3, 6 and 7. The Teaser Shopper shows you the expected value on individual legs and the overall EV of your teaser. It lets you identify profitable spots and quantify just how much of an edge you have. Any day you can do one less calculation by hand is a good day.

Teasers are available for the NFL, NBA, and college football and basketball. In the dropdown menu at the top, choose your sport and which book you want to bet at. The tool defaults to three-leg, 6-point teasers that pay +160, but you can customize those fields for your bet.

We can see the Seahawks and Browns are -1 at DraftKings and we know a 6-point teaser will let us hit two key numbers – through 3 and touching 7. First, click each spread on the menu to input it into the teaser tool. Then the tool will automatically calculate the play, telling us we have a 7.12% edge. If the Seahawks and Browns take care of business against the beat-up Rams and Texans, respectively, and the Steelers don’t get embarrassed by the Falcons, we’re in good shape.

But let’s say we really would rather have Baltimore than Pittsburgh. We missed out on the Ravens -8.5, but can we get away with -9.5? Clicking the trash can icon to remove the Steelers and replacing them with the Ravens shows us the hook on 3.5  is too much to overcome. Now we have a negative expectation.

We can change up to a 6.5-point teaser and still cross 3 with the Browns and Seahawks. We’ll still come away with a positive-EV spot, though the edge is smaller than our first teaser.

When changing the points, be sure to adjust your price. DraftKings pays +160 for 6-point three-teamers, but just +150 on the 6.5-point plays. If you forgot to change the price, you might have seen an edge in the 10% range. Don’t trip over yourself to bet a massive edge without making sure everything is squared away in the tool.

If 6.5 is good, is 7 better? We’d have to ditch Seattle and Cleveland. Zero is a dead number, which means you’re losing value in your teaser every time you cross it. You’re paying for points, so use them all. Don’t waste them on a zero. The Lions and Steelers at +1 are effective legs, but you’re coming out with a smaller edge because what you’re gaining the Ravens falling below 3, you’re losing a shorter payout and less value on the other two legs.

Plus, you can blast these out on Twitter. Bring out your receipts when your favorite touts start crowing about taking the Niners from -4 to +3. Now go get to work.