With the Association back in action tonight after a … thrilling All-Star game, it’s a good time to walk through NBA props and see how we can use all the Unabated tools available to analyze a play.
LeBron James is listed as probable and on the road against Golden State tonight. Let’s see how his points, rebounds and assists prop looks.
First, on the NBA Props Odds Screen we can see that James is either at 41.5 or 42.5, depending on the book. We’ve also got differing juice to account for.
If we don’t know exactly what one point of PRA is worth, we can get a better idea by using the NBA Prop Simulator.
We’ll start by using James’ season averages as a jumping off point. For forwards with James’ averages, the fair price for Over 41.5 would be -155. For 42.5 it would be -135. The number closest to breakeven would be either 44.5 or 45.
In this case, moving from Over 42.5 to Over 41.5 is worth 20 cents to the fair price, based on these projections. Which means we know that FanDuel’s 142.5 (-104) is going to be a little better than DraftKings’ 141.5 (-120) if we want the Over.
You can tab over to the Summary section and see that the median in this case would be 45. This is useful information knowing that prop prices are typically based around a player’s medians. (James’ medians this season are: 29 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists.) As a bonus, you can see the fair price on the double-double and triple-double based off of the projections you input.
If we like our numbers, we’d have one solid play, and one clear not-even-with-someone-else’s-money bet.
But we know those numbers are just a ballpark. Let’s say we want to try something a little sharper.
Back on the NBA Prop Odds screen, you can choose from projections from our partners, NumberFire or FantasyPros.
Here we’ll use NumberFire and we get a projection of 27.8 points, 7.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists. Hit the green button and we’ll see how those projections stack up to the numbers on the board.
We have a little bit of an edge on the Under, assuming we’re committing to these projections. But if we aren’t, you can choose a different set or upload your own. Better yet, blend together any of the three.
Using NumberFire for 70% and FantasyPros for the remaining 30%, we get James at 29.4 points, 8.1 rebounds and 6.2 assists.
Remember, James’ season-long averages were 30 points, 8.4 rebounds and 6.2 assists. This blend isn’t terribly far off from average, but it takes us from a no-doubt Over using season averages, to a much thinner edge.
Small changes in projections have a large impact on estimating your edge on prop plays. Just blending in 30% FantasyPros’ projections into our numbers took us from leaning Under to leaning Over.
By using both in-line projections and the NBA Prop Simulator, you can thrive on those thin margins.
